FOREX-Dollar heads for weekly decline as data and trade tensions weigh

Published 06/12/2019, 01:22
Updated 06/12/2019, 01:27
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar heads for weekly decline as data and trade tensions weigh
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* Dollar beaten up after week of weak data, trade confusion

* U.S. non-farm payrolls eyed; due at 1330 GMT, +180k

expected

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The dollar nursed a week of

losses on Friday, hit by nervousness on trade and mixed signals

about the U.S. economy, while the British pound stood tall as

bets firmed that Prime Minister Boris Johnson can win a

commanding electoral victory.

The safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were in

demand as a hedge against Sino-U.S. trade talks collapsing, and

as investors fretted that U.S. jobs figures due later in the day

may fail to deliver an expected rebound.

"Markets are in a highly fragile condition at the moment,"

said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in

Sydney.

"So there is a greater potential for an exaggerated move if

we see a big divergence from expectations on non-farm payrolls -

but the risk is in both directions, particularly with the lack

of trade news."

The euro EUR= held on to overnight gains against the

greenback to buy $1.1104, having climbed 0.8% this week. The yen

JPY= has added 0.9% on the dollar this week and was steady at

108.72 yen per dollar on Friday.

Against a basket of currencies .DXY the dollar has dropped

every day this week for a cumulative loss of almost 1%.

The best gains have been won by the soaring kiwi and British

pound. The kiwi NZD=D3 sat just below a four-month high

touched on Thursday at $0.6541, having gained 1.8% this week as

expectations for deep monetary easing have ebbed.

Sterling climbed to a 2-1/2 year high of 84.28 pence against

the euro EURGBP= overnight - holding near there on Friday -

and has advanced 1.7% against the dollar this week, last trading

at $1.3158 GBP=D3 .

Opinion polls suggest the ruling Conservatives will win an

outright majority in the Dec. 12 election, removing some of the

uncertainty around Britain's exit from the European Union that

has weighed on the currency for years. Cable has rallied 10%

since September lows.

"There's still a bit of nervousness about being too

convinced," said Jim Leaviss, head of fixed income at fund

manager M&G Investments. "But nevertheless cable seems to think

that we do get a clear majority for Boris Johnson," he said.

"That means that we leave the EU on the 31st of January...I

think the options market was pricing in another 7% upside on a

Conservative victory, and I think that's justified

fundamentally."

On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump remained

upbeat overnight and said talks are "moving right along".

Worries stem from a lack of similar enthusiasm from the

Chinese side, after Chinese officials reiterated their stance

that some U.S. tariffs must be rolled back for a deal.

The focus on U.S. non-farm payrolls, due at 1330 GMT, comes

after dismal data through the week that showed weak private

payrolls, soft services activity and a shrinking manufacturing

sector.

A Reuters poll shows a forecast of 180,000 jobs being added

in November. "Below 150,000 or above 210,000 we could see a

significant market reaction," said CMC Markets' McCarthy.

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