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FOREX-Dollar on backfoot as trade talks buoy Asian currencies

Published 25/08/2020, 05:36
© Reuters.
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* Sino-U.S. trade call passes without a hitch, Asia FX
bought
* Powell speech seen as crucial in dollar's next move
* German IFO nervously eyed after soft PMI data
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Tuesday
and Asia's trade-exposed currencies rose after the United States
and China both hailed a phone call between their top trade
officials as a success.
That reaffirmed investors' faith that even as diplomatic
ties between the two countries fray, the trade relationship can
endure. The news lifted the Australian dollar AUD=D3 0.2% to
$0.7172 and nudged the Chinese yuan CNH= firmer to 6.9007.
Sentiment, and support for riskier currencies over the
dollar, was also boosted by a Financial Times report which said
that U.S. authorities were considering fast-tracking approval
for a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford
University. Moves were contained as markets were not expecting a
breakdown of the trade deal and looking ahead to a speech from
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell later in the week, which
could shift the U.S. dollar in either direction.
The broad pressure on the dollar helped the euro EUR=EBS
back over $1.18 by mid-morning in Asia and the pound GBP= rose
0.3% to $1.3102. The kiwi NZD=D3 , weighed by expectations of
negative rates in the future, struggled for headway at $0.6528.
"It's reassuring that despite all the rhetoric the U.S. and
China clearly still want to have an economic relationship," said
National Australia Bank senior foreign exchange strategist
Rodrigo Catril. "That adds to the feelgood vibes."
On the call, which had been originally scheduled for Aug.
15, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury
Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.
The United States said both sides "see progress" and China's
commerce ministry called the talks "constructive." The safe-haven yen JPY= was steady at 105.95 per dollar.
Elsewhere the trade-sensitive South Korean won KRW= rose
with the mood, while the Indian rupee INR= picked up where it
left off after surging 1% on Monday as the central bank
unexpectedly broke with a recent pattern of dollar buying.

POWELL WATCH
The Asia-session moves return some gentle pressure to the
greenback which had held up during New York trade, defying a
positive mood in the equity market - which often drives dollar
selling in favour of riskier currencies.
Against a basket of currencies =USD the dollar dipped 0.1%
to 93.180 and it sits at a crossroads: Flat for the month after
a roughly 10% slide from late March through to early August.
Its short-term fate depends on whether Europe's economy
keeps up the impression that it is outperforming the United
States and on what the market thinks the Fed will do next.
For now, all eyes are on Powell's address to a virtual
Jackson Hole symposium on Thursday, with investors expecting he
will sound dovish and might speak to speculation that the
central bank could adopt a more accommodative stance on
inflation.
"If we don't get dovishness, I expect you might actually get
rates rising and pop up higher in the U.S. dollar," said Westpac
FX analyst Imre Speizer.
"I think what we're seeing now is any excuse to buy back
(the dollar) as the punters who have been short all the way down
get quite nervous and take the money off the table."
Investors are also looking ahead to Germany's IFO Business
Climate index, due at 0800 GMT, and U.S. consumer confidence
figures at 1400 GMT for clues as to the relative performance of
the two economies.
Softer-than-forecast data on both continents last week
suggests there is downside risk.
"If data releases confirm the negative turn in terms of
macro outlook in Europe, then it will be clear euro negative,"
said Terence Wu, FX strategist at Singapore's OCBC Bank.
"$1.17 remains the key level that may spark a deeper
sell-off, but the pair may need to breach the $1.1850/80
resistance for the trajectory to look more comfortably
positive."

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