FOREX-Dollar recovers vs the yen as U.S. data soothes market nerves

Published 15/08/2019, 14:09
FOREX-Dollar recovers vs the yen as U.S. data soothes market nerves
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* U.S. retail sales data boosts greenback

* Norway's crown falls after Norges Bank flags uncertainty

* Aussie rises on employment data

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Recasts after U.S. data, adds details)

By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded and rose

against the yen on Thursday as better-than-expected retail sales

data in the United States helped offset fears that the U.S.

economy could be headed for a recession.

Foreign exchange markets have remained relatively calm

despite big moves in bond markets this week, where investors

have piled into government debt in anticipation of a global

growth slowdown.

But the safe-haven Japanese yen has strengthened as

investors looked for safety.

After earlier rising as European stock markets fell and

investors flooded into safer assets, the yen then weakened. Data

showing a bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales in July

boosted the dollar. The latest turbulence in financial markets was triggered by

the first inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve

US2US10=TWEB for 12 years.

Such an inversion, where two-year yields trade higher than

10-year yields, has preceded previous economic recessions.

"Market-related headlines this morning have been dominated

by yield curve inversion and the recessionary implications that

follow," Rabobank said in a note to clients.

Sentiment was already fragile after economic data from China

and Germany earlier in the week revealed the extent of the

damage the China-U.S. trade dispute is causing to the world

economy.

The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 106.19 JPY=EBS .

On Wednesday, the yen had rallied 0.8% against the

greenback, its biggest daily gain in two weeks.

The dollar index .DXY , which measures its value against a

basket of six major currencies, erased its earlier losses and

was last at 97.949, unchanged on the day.

The euro edged higher against the dollar, rising 0.1% to

$1.1145 EUR=EBS .

The euro was also ahead against the Swiss franc, rising 0.2%

to 1.0863 francs per euro EURCHF=EBS .

NORWAY'S CROWN FALLS

Elsewhere, Norway's crown weakened after its central bank,

the Norges Bank, said its policy outlook was now more uncertain,

raising doubts about whether it would raise rates later in 2019.

The central bank has been an outlier with its plans to hike

rates while most policymakers turn more dovish in the face of

worsening global growth.

"We regard this as a signal that Norges Bank wants to gain

flexibility in order to evaluate important incoming domestic

data and global developments before deciding on the next

possible rate hike," said SEB strategist Erica Blomgren Dalstø.

The crown was last down 0.1% against the euro at 10.019

crowns EURNOK=D3 . The Australian dollar AUD=D3 rose as much as 0.5% to

$0.6791 after data showed the Australian economy had added a

forecast-busting 41,100 new jobs in July.

However, reflecting the rising global economic risks,

futures markets still imply an 84% chance of a quarter-point

rate cut to 0.75% in October, with a cut by November seen as

certain.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle

highlighted the risks from the trade war in a speech on

Thursday, saying it could trigger a self-fulfilling global

downturn. Sterling rallied to $1.2122, up 0.5% on the day GBP=D3 , on

better-than-expected retail sales data for July and hopes that a

no-deal Brexit can be avoided.

(Editing by Angus MacSwan, Hugh Lawson and Kevin Liffey)

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