FOREX-Dollar set for weekly loss as data, Fed cool bond market

Published 09/04/2021, 02:07
Updated 09/04/2021, 02:12
© Reuters.
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* Euro, yen poised for weekly rises >1%
* Sterling suffers as AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) vaccine falters
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, April 9 (Reuters) - The dollar was headed for its
worst week of the year on Friday as unexpectedly strong economic
data in Europe, downbeat U.S. jobs figures and a determinedly
accommodative Federal Reserve have prompted investors to unwind
some bets on the greenback.
The euro and yen are also poised for their largest weekly
percentage gains in five months while the dollar index =USD ,
which has fallen 1% this week, is parked near a two-week low at
92.066.
"In short, the energy has gone out of the dollar's
first-quarter rebound, just as it has gone out of the bond
sell-off," said Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe
Generale.
Early in the Asia session, the euro EUR= sat above its
200-day moving average at $1.1916, just short of Thursday's
two-week top at $1.1928, while the yen JPY= pushed through its
20-day moving average to hold at 109.325 per dollar. The euro is
up 1.4% against the dollar this week and the yen is up 1.3%.
The euro has also risen more than 2% against the pound
EURGBP= this week, bouncing from a one-year low of 84.70 pence
on Monday to hit 86.81 pence in Asia on Friday amid growing
concerns about Britain's reliance on AstraZeneca's vaccine.
Sterling GBP= was an outlier against the dollar this week and
has fallen half a percent to sit at $1.3744.
The vaccine - developed with Oxford University and
considered a frontrunner in the global inoculation race - has
been plagued by safety concerns and supply problems. Australia
and the Philippines limited use of the shot on Thursday, while
the African Union dropped plans to buy it. On the data front, overnight figures showed U.S.
unemployment claims unexpectedly rose - a bit of a dampener
after a bumper payrolls report last week. European factory gate
price rises, meanwhile, accelerated on the heels of surprisingly
strong business activity growth. Fed leaders also again vowed to keep monetary policy super
easy, even after some erstwhile positive signals from economic
data. Chair Jerome Powell said policy wouldn't shift until there
was at least a monthslong string of such data, while board
member James Bullard said the Fed should not even discuss
changes until it is clear the pandemic is over. Treasuries rose on the jobs wobble and the Fed comments,
pushing benchmark 10-year yields - which fall when prices rise -
to a two-week low of 1.6170% US10YT=RR . US/
That further robbed the dollar of some of its recent allure,
while a broadly upbeat mood in equity markets also lent some
support to the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand
currencies which headed to the top of recent ranges.
The Aussie AUD=D3 last sat at $0.7657, up 0.8% for the
week, while the kiwi NZD=D3 climbed to $0.7060, up 0.6% on the
week.
"Markets (are) re-thinking the U.S. dollar exceptionalism
view," ANZ Bank analysts said in a note on Friday.
"Stronger U.S. growth should benefit all global cyclical
assets, including the New Zealand dollar and Asian currencies,
and this appears to be the theme now at play."

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