* Virus surges in U.S. south and west
* California, Texas, Florida re-imposing restrictions on
business
* Risk-currency rally stalled, but dollar also struggles to
gain
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, June 29 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to make
headway on Monday, and riskier currencies inched ahead, as
investor sentiment swung between hopes for a global economic
recovery and fears that a fresh wave of coronavirus cases could
undermine the revival.
Against a basket of currencies =USD the greenback
retreated from a one-week high hit on Friday and dipped 0.2% to
97.303. The trade-exposed Australian and New Zealand dollars
rose about 0.2% to near the middle of recent ranges.
California ordered some bars to close on Sunday, following
similar moves in Texas and Florida, as cases nationwide soar to
record levels. Washington state and the city of San Francisco
have paused re-opening plans. Yet elsewhere - from New York to Europe and Asia -
re-openings continue apace and data illustrates a swift rebound.
"The debate is still very live," said Westpac FX analyst
Sean Callow. "How seriously are you going to bet that retreats
in reopening in selected U.S. states are enough to actually
puncture the rally?"
For now the dollar has dithered rather than deflated.
The Aussie and kiwi are headed for monthly gains around 3%
but made most of that ground in the early days of June and have
tracked sideways since then. AUD/
The Aussie AUD=D3 , which has gained nearly 25% from a more
than 17-year low hit in March, was last up 0.2% at $0.6877. The
kiwi NZD=D3 rose by the same margin to $0.6431.
Simultaneous safe-haven gains also point to heightened
caution, even as the thirst for dollars has eased off as the
U.S. Federal Reserve has flooded markets with liquidity.
The yen JPY=EBS and Swiss franc CHF= seem set for their
best months against the greenback this year, with gains of 0.6%
and 1.5% respectively. Each made a small rise on Monday.
Elsewhere, sterling GBP=D3 bounced 0.3% from a month-low
plumbed on Friday as investors fretted about whether Britain can
settle a post-Brexit trade pact with the European Union. A fresh
round of talks is due to begin this week.
RISKS BALANCED
Globally half a million people have died from COVID-19,
about a quarter them in the United States. The jump in U.S. cases has been most pronounced in a handful
of Southern and Western states that reopened earlier and more
aggressively and investors are closely watching to see the
extent and severity of renewed restrictions.
Elsewhere, rollbacks of lockdowns seem to be trouble free
and outbreaks in other global hotspots, from Germany to
Melbourne and Beijing appear localised, for now.
And economic data continues to surprise on the upside.
Profits at China's industrial firms rose for the first time
in six months in May, China's national bureau of statistics said
on Sunday, suggesting the recovery is gaining traction.
Investors are looking to eurozone confidence data due at
0900 GMT and German inflation figures at 1200 GMT for the latest
gauge of the region's economic health.
It is also an important week for U.S. data with the ISM
manufacturing report on Wednesday and payrolls on Thursday,
ahead of the Independence Day holiday. Federal Reserve Chair
Jerome Powell is also testifying on Tuesday.
The euro EUR= is set to wrap up its best two months
against the dollar in a year and a half, as hopes for a united
EU response to the virus and a swift regional recovery propel
the single currency ahead about 2.5% since the beginning of May.
The single currency rose 0.2% to $1.1239 in Asia on Monday.
"Given the euro area's high (sensitivity) to global trade,
we expect more global uncertainty around the pandemic to keep
any upside capped," ANZ bank analysts said in a note.