FOREX-Dollar under pressure as U.S. payrolls data could spur more risk-taking

Published 07/05/2021, 05:07
Updated 07/05/2021, 05:12
© Reuters.
EUR/USD
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USD/JPY
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DX
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* Dollar at this week's low, markets see strong U.S. job
gains
* Strong job data could spur fresh fund flows to riskier
assets
* Canadian dollar at 3 1/2-yr high, Chinese yuan firm
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Hideyuki Sano
TOKYO, May 7 (Reuters) - The dollar stayed under modest
pressure on Friday ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could
cement expectations of a strong economic recovery and increase
investor appetite for stocks, higher-yielding currencies and
commodities.
The dollar's index against six other major currencies stood
near its lowest level this week, at 90.867 =USD , having lost
about 0.4% overnight.
As the dollar is softer against most currencies, the euro
outshone many others, having gained 0.5% on Thursday and last
stood at $1.2067 EUR= .
Against the yen, the dollar dipped to 109.05 yen JPY= ,
almost flat so far on the week as its rebound since late April
has lost steam.
U.S. payrolls data, due at 1230 GMT, is expected to confirm
the economy's solid path to recovery from the pandemic, with
economists expecting 978,000 new U.S. jobs for April, after
bumper gains of 916,000 in March.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.8% from 6.0%
in March.
Ahead of the closely watched report, data showed on Thursday
the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment
benefits fell below 500,000 last week for the first time since
the COVID-19 pandemic started more than a year ago. Signs of strong job recovery are something of a double-edged
sword for markets.
They could boost risk appetite and weigh on the safe haven
dollar. But if they stoke inflation worries and lead to
expectations of reduction in the Federal Reserve's stimulus, it
may boost U.S. bond yields and the dollar.
"In March, the dollar rose sharply as everyone was talking
about inflation. But that has lost momentum. I think it should
be difficult to keep talking about inflation worries without
actual evidences," said Ayako Sera, market economist at Sumitomo
Mitsui Trust Bank.
"Since then, we are stuck with this conundrum about whether
a strong job data would lead to more risk-taking or more
inflation worries," she added.
For now, many traders are inclined to bet on further
risk-taking, given that so far most Federal Reserve policymakers
have downplayed the risks of higher prices, a sign stimulus
tapering will not be on the agenda any time soon.
"Markets are convinced that the Fed won't make actions until
the U.S. will see a full employment. That means positive
environment for risk assets such as stocks," said Bart
Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager of State Street. "I often hear
people say they are fine with the idea of selling the dollar.
The question is becoming, what you should buy against the
dollar?"
The Canadian dollar has become a currency of choice for
some, gaining almost 1% overnight to a 3-1/2-year high of
C$1.21455 CAD=D4 and last stood at C$1.2157.
The currency has been bolstered by oil price gains and the
Bank of Canada's recent shift to more hawkish guidance.
The Chinese yuan also held firm near a two-month high,
standing at 6.4655 per dollar in offshore trade CNH= , just
short of its April 30 peak of 6.4613.
On the other hand, the British pound traded at $1.3896
GBP=D4 , unable to hold on to gains made on Thursday after the
Bank of England slowed the pace of its trillion-dollar
bond-purchasing programme.
The decision was largely expected and the BoE stressed it
was not reversing its stimulus. The British currency is capped for now by uncertainties over
a Scottish election that could trigger a showdown with British
Prime Minister Boris Johnson over its independence movement.
Although the polls already closed at 2100 GMT, votes will
not be counted until Friday morning due to the coronavirus
pandemic.
Just over a third of the results will be announced on Friday
and the remainder will be announced on Saturday.
Elsewhere, ether hit a fresh record high of $3,610.04
ETH=BTSP and last traded at $3,442.36.
Bitcoin fetched $55,875 BTC=BTSP , trapped in a range
between $53,000 and $59,000 over the past week.

========================================================
Currency bid prices at 355 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.2067 $1.2065 +0.02% -1.24% +1.2070 +1.2060
Dollar/Yen JPY=EBS 109.1050 109.0450 +0.04% +5.62% +109.1850 +108.9700
Euro/Yen S>
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9072 0.9074 -0.01% +2.55% +0.9081 +0.9071
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 1.3909 1.3891 +0.14% +1.82% +1.3912 +1.3890
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2166 1.2154 +0.09% -4.47% +1.2166 +1.2152
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 0.7776 0.7785 -0.09% +1.11% +0.7792 +0.7773
NZ NZD=D3 0.7229 0.7237 -0.07% +0.71% +0.7243 +0.7227
Dollar/Dollar


All spots FX=
Tokyo spots AFX=
Europe spots EFX=
Volatilities FXVOL=
Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ TKYFX




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World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
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