FOREX-Euro climbs back above $1.08, volatility spikes

Published 19/02/2020, 10:13
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro climbs back above $1.08, volatility spikes
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* Euro climbs above $1.08 mark

* One-month euro/dollar implied vol hits six-week high

* Yen eases as new coronavirus cases subside

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Ritvik Carvalho

LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The euro rose on Wednesday as

improving risk sentiment in global markets paused the dollar's

rally, providing relief to the single currency, which had

earlier fallen to three-year lows after a survey showed

weakening confidence in Germany.

The euro has fallen 3.6% to the dollar this year, as

Europe's economic data has deteriorated while that of the United

States has mostly improved.

On Tuesday, Germany's ZEW research institute said in its

monthly survey that investors' mood had deteriorated far more

than expected in February, on worries coronavirus would curtail

world trade. "I've been talking for some time about the risk of a further

downturn in euro/dollar from a fundamental point of view, based

largely on the widening difference in expected growth between

the two regions," said Marshall Gittler, head of investment

research at BDSwiss.

"There's also a technical argument to be made for a lower

euro: the single currency is approaching a major long-term

support level."

By 0844 GMT, the euro was 0.13% higher at $1.0805 EUR=EBS .

One-month euro-dollar implied volatility EUR1MO= rose to

its highest in six weeks.

But amid signs that the coronavirus outbreak is starting to

slow, global markets turned around on Wednesday. Riskier assets

-- stocks, oil and copper -- were all up.

China posted the lowest daily increase in new infections

since Jan. 29, considered an indication containment efforts were

working.

A Bloomberg report, citing sources, that China is

considering cash injections or mergers to bail out airlines hit

by the virus also supported risk appetite.

The safe-haven Japanese yen JPY= , which tends to benefit

from uncertainty, eased against the dollar to hit its lowest

level in nearly a month. It last traded 0.2% lower at 110.08 per

dollar.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a

basket of its peers, was 0.04% lower at 99.404. .DXY

The yield curve between U.S. three-month bills and 10-year

notes inverted overnight, a bearish economic signal.

US/ Investors are looking to the minutes from the Federal

Reserve's January meeting, due at 1900 GMT, for insight into the

Fed's thinking about virus risks.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 gained 0.15% to $0.6697,

benefiting from the risk-on mood in markets. New Zealand's

dollar also gained 0.2%. AUD/

The antipodean currencies, heavily exposed to China, have

lost more than 4.5% against the dollar this year. Norway's

krone, sensitive to global growth via oil exports, has shed 6%,

and it slumped to an 18-year low overnight NOK= .

That pushed the yen to the weaker side of 110-per-dollar and

gave a little boost to Asia's export currencies.

CNY/ EMRG/FRX

China's yuan CNY= , however, touched a two-week low after

the central bank fixed a softer-than-expected trading band, and

as investors expected further monetary

easing. "It's a tug of war between wait-and-worry and being relieved

that the infection rate is slowing down," said Bank of Singapore

currency strategist Moh Siong Sim.

"The specific moves this morning are related to more policy

help from China ... there's some relief that more help is on the

way and that is restoring some positivity to the market."

The new coronavirus has caused 2,004 deaths in China and

infected more than 74,000 people. European purchasing managers index numbers and part-month

Korean export figures, both due on Friday, are also going to be

closely watched for signs of economic impact.

The pound was flat to the dollar at $1.2993, before UK

inflation data due at 0930 GMT. The British currency gained on

Tuesday after UK finance minister Rishi Sunak announced the

budget would be presented on March 11 as planned. GBP/

U.S. economic surprises surge as euro zone flags https://tmsnrt.rs/38FKEZR

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