FOREX-Euro gains on hopes of German fiscal stimulus

Published 09/09/2019, 14:56
Updated 09/09/2019, 15:00
FOREX-Euro gains on hopes of German fiscal stimulus
EUR/USD
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USD/JPY
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USD/NOK
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SOGN
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* Report that Germany may circumvent debt rules to boost

spending

* ECB expected to ease at Thursday's meeting

(New throughout, updates trading and comments to U.S. market

open, new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON)

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The euro rose on Monday after a

report that Germany may boost fiscal stimulus increased hopes

that governments will act to boost growth in the region, though

expectations of further central bank easing kept a lid on gains.

Germany is considering the creation of a "shadow budget"

that would enable Berlin to boost public investment beyond the

restrictions of constitutionally enshrined debt rules, three

people familiar with the internal discussions told Reuters.

Government officials are flirting with the idea of setting

up independent public entities that would seize the historic

opportunity of zero borrowing costs and take on new debt to

increase investment in infrastructure and climate protection,

the officials said.

“A key part of that coalition is the commitment to keep

balanced budgets. If they are waiving from that it could be very

supportive for the euro and very bearish for the dollar,” said

Bipan Rai, North American head, FX strategy at CIBC Capital

Markets in Toronto.

The euro EUR= gained to $1.1047 against the greenback, up

0.18% on the day, after earlier trading as low as $1.1014.

Euro gains were capped, however, before the European Central

Bank's meeting on Thursday, when the central bank is expected to

introduce a new wave of monetary stimulus. "The default is to be negative euro into ECB," said Kenneth

Broux, head of corporate research at Societe Generale (PA:SOGN).

"Resuming bond purchases won't do anything" to the euro zone

economy because "the monetary policy in Europe has stopped being

effective," Broux added. "The ECB has done all it can."

The euro may get a boost, however, if the ECB disappoints

dovish expectations already baked into the market.

“We get the sense the market is expecting a bit too much of

a dovish outcome this week and if that is the case that could

imply that tactical long euro positions might do well,” Rai

said.

In the U.S., consumer price inflation data on Thursday and

retail sales data on Friday are the main economic focus. They

will come after the jobs report on Friday showed that U.S. jobs

growth slowed more than expected in August.

The Federal Reserve will continue to act "as appropriate" to

sustain the U.S. economic expansion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell

said Friday in Zurich, bolstering expectations for a rate cut at

the Fed's meeting on Sept. 18. Currency bid prices at 9:26AM (1326 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1047 $1.1027 +0.18% -3.68% +1.1058 +1.1016

Dollar/Yen JPY= 107.0400 106.9000 +0.13% -2.92% +107.0700 +106.7800

Euro/Yen EURJPY= 118.27 117.86 +0.35% -6.30% +118.3000 +117.7500

Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9910 0.9872 +0.38% +0.98% +0.9914 +0.9875

Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2361 1.2281 +0.65% -3.10% +1.2382 +1.2235

Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3153 1.3170 -0.13% -3.55% +1.3184 +1.3150

Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6866 0.6846 +0.29% -2.60% +0.6872 +0.6837

Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.0951 1.0888 +0.58% -2.69% +1.0952 +1.0890

Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8935 0.8973 -0.42% -0.55% +0.9014 +0.8905

NZ NZD= 0.6437 0.6425 +0.19% -4.17% +0.6444 +0.6414

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.9268 8.9740 -0.53% +3.34% +8.9922 +8.9264

Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.8625 9.8975 -0.35% -0.44% +9.9085 +9.8513

Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.6513 9.6427 +0.25% +7.67% +9.6695 +9.6333

Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.6630 10.6362 +0.25% +3.90% +10.6655 +10.6241

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