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FOREX-Euro near 4-week low vs dlr as traders look for end to US-China trade war

Published 11/11/2019, 13:10
Updated 11/11/2019, 13:18
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro near 4-week low vs dlr as traders look for end to US-China trade war

* Japanese yen rises on Hong Kong protest escalation

* British pound up despite Moody's warning, poor economic

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updates prices, adds fresh comment)

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The euro held steady against the

U.S. dollar on Monday after matching a four-week low earlier as

the greenback maintained its gains on optimism that the United

States and China would roll back tariffs that have hurt global

growth.

Officials from both countries said late last week that a

rollback of some tit-for-tat tariffs had been agreed as part of

a preliminary deal, that has still to be finalised, aimed at

ending their trade war. Even though that was subsequently denied by U.S. President

Donald Trump on Friday, he did not completely rule out a deal

and U.S. benchmark Treasuries held above a key support level at

1.9%, buoying the currency. US/N

Moves were slight as traders kept a wary eye on further news

on the U.S.-China trade war, and against the safe-haven Japanese

yen the dollar fell as market participants reacted to the

escalating political confrontations in Hong Kong.

"Market participants have become more cautious over the

potential positive impact for global growth from a partial

U.S.-China trade deal following comments from President Trump,"

said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG.

"Nevertheless, market participants are likely to remain

optimistic that the U.S. and China are moving closer to

finalizing a partial trade deal by the end of this year,"

Hardman said.

The euro traded at $1.1026 EUR=EBS , flat but not far from

the Oct. 15 low of $1.10165 it fell to on Friday.

The Japanese currency was last up 0.3% at 108.93 against the

dollar JPY=EBS .

"The trade resolution is a little positive for the euro,"

said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital

Markets.

But China is unlikely to ramp up imports from the euro zone,

Gallo said, which means the common currency is unlikely to

benefit from the fact that the United States and China could

decide to end the 16-month long trade war.

"Any bullish reaction in the euro will in our view be a

second, third or fourth order response to a resolution of the

trade war," Gallo said.

He sees euro-dollar stuck between $1.10 and $1.12, he said.

The index which tracks the dollar against six major

currencies was neutral at 98.317, flirting with a four-week

high.

The Chinese yuan weakened 0.3% to 7 per dollar in offshore

trade CNH=EBS on fresh violence in Hong Kong, where police

fired live rounds at protesters, with Cable TV and other media

reporting at least one person being wounded. Disappointing economic data also hurt sentiment toward the

yuan, as China's producer prices fell the most in more than

three years in October, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data

showed on Saturday, while the country's consumer prices rose at

their fastest pace in almost eight years. The UK's main stock index fell sharply on Monday as a

violent day of protest in Hong Kong knocked Asia-exposed

financial stocks. Elsewhere, the British pound was up 0.4% at $1.2825 GBP=D3

despite the fact that Moody's warned on Friday it might again

cut its rating on Britain's sovereign debt. Its rise also came

even as data showed Britain's economy grew at the slowest annual

rate in nearly a decade in the third quarter.

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