FOREX-Global growth fears support yen, Australia and NZ dollars pare losses

Published 08/08/2019, 05:42
Updated 08/08/2019, 05:50
FOREX-Global growth fears support yen, Australia and NZ dollars pare losses
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USD/JPY
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US10YT=X
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* Yen firm; growth woes, low yields and easing prospect dog
peers
* Kiwi, Aussie claw back some losses from RBNZ's big rate
cut
* But outlook remains grim as US-China trade war intensifies
* Yuan strengthens after midpoint setting firmer than
expected
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Adds details and quotes, updates prices)
By Shinichi Saoshiro
TOKYO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The yen was supported on Thursday,
after global central banks startled markets with heavy rate cuts
and threats of more to come as world economic risks grow,
boosting the appeal of the safe-haven Japanese currency.
The New Zealand and Australian dollars clawed back some of
their heavy losses from the previous session, although analysts
said their longer term outlook remained bleak.
On Wednesday, both currencies tumbled after the Reserve Bank
of New Zealand stunned markets with a bigger than expected
interest rate cut and flagged the possibility of negative rates.
Broadening expectations of global monetary easing are now
weighing on currencies such as the dollar and the euro,
providing the yen with further support.
The yen JPY= was a tad firmer at 106.185 per dollar. It
touched 105.500 overnight, its strongest level since Jan. 3,
before pulling back slightly.
"The yen's appreciation versus the dollar may have slowed
for now, but it stands to keep gaining in the longer term," said
Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in
Tokyo. "Its other peers, notably the antipodean currencies, have
weakened severely and this provides overall support to the yen."
The New Zealand dollar NZDJPY= on Wednesday tumbled to a
seven-year low of 67.58 yen and was last at 68.61 for a gain of
0.2%. The RBNZ's move on Wednesday was followed by central banks
in Thailand and India signalling major concerns about the
outlook of economic growth. The kiwi NZD=D3 nudged up 0.2% to $0.6458, following a
slide to a 3-1/2-year low of $0.6378 on Wednesday.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 rose 0.15% to $0.6770 after
hitting $0.6677 overnight, its lowest since March 2009, as
RBNZ's rate cut fuelled speculation that its Australian
counterpart would soon follow. The Aussie AUDJPY= was at 71.98
yen following a retreat to a decade-low of 70.74 yen on
Wednesday.
The escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and
Beijing was seen hurting the long term economic fortunes of
China, in turn damaging the prospects of antipodean countries
which have deep commercial ties with the world's second largest
economy.
"The intensifying Sino-U.S. trade war means downward
pressure on the Australian and New Zealand dollars are
increasing, as their economies export heavily to China," said
Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities.
On Thursday, China's onshore yuan CNY=CFXS strengthened
0.2% to 7.0442 per dollar. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set
the midpoint rate weaker than 7 to the dollar for the first time
since the global financial crisis, but the level was firmer than
the market expected and signalled an intent to stabilise the
currency's decline. China on Monday allowed the yuan to break the key
7-per-dollar threshold for the first time in a decade, with its
decision to guide the currency lower opening a new front in the
trade war.
A growing list of central banks have eased monetary policy
in a bid to stave off negative effects of slowing global growth,
while plunging yields have driven currencies lower.
"The decline in Treasury yields sets dollar/yen firmly on
downward spiral as the market continues to price more Fed rate
cuts. The European Central Bank looks set to ease in September,
which will only support the yen even more," Ishikawa at IG
Securities said.
The euro EURJPY= traded at 119.09 yen after brushing a
28-month trough of 117.66 at the start of the week.
Interest rates futures suggested traders are building bets
the Federal Reserve would cut rates three more times by year-end
to avert a recession. In the wake of such speculation, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
yield US10YT=RR sank to a three-year low of 1.595% on
Wednesday.
The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major
currencies stood little changed at 97.537 after dipping 0.1%
overnight.
The index rose to a 27-month high of 98.932 just a week ago
after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out lengthy monetary
easing, but it has since declined sharply on resurgent prospects
of more rate cuts. The euro EUR= nudged up 0.1% to $1.1211.

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