FOREX-Hopes for Brexit delay rally pound, dollar slips on US factory data

Published 04/09/2019, 07:04
Updated 04/09/2019, 07:10
FOREX-Hopes for Brexit delay rally pound, dollar slips on US factory data
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* Sterling recovers but under pressure amid Brexit chaos

* Aussie dollar jumps as GDP data meets expectations

* Plummeting pound: https://tmsnrt.rs/2N6T2JO

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The British pound bounced on

Wednesday in the wake of a parliamentary vote opening the door

for another Brexit delay, while the dollar drifted lower after

weak manufacturing data stoked wagers on aggressive U.S. policy

easing.

The greenback's doldrums helped the Australian dollar

AUD=D3 shine when June-quarter economic growth, while soft,

was in line with forecasts, and the currency rose 0.3% to reach

a one-week peak of $0.6775.

Sterling, pushed to a near three-year low on Wednesday,

climbed almost 0.2% against the dollar to $1.2100 and firmed

0.1% against the euro.

"I think there's a real opportunity for the pound," said

Nick Twidale, director at Sydney FX brokerage Xchainge.

He said the rise was driven by British lawmakers voting to

defy Prime Minister Boris Johnson to put a proposal delaying

Britain's exit from the European Union beyond October on

parliament's agenda on Wednesday. "It now opens up the possibility again of, I suppose the

extreme would be a no-Brexit, but a softer Brexit," Twidale

said. "We'd priced in so much of a hard Brexit with Boris

Johnson coming in, that I think there's real opportunity for

some sterling appreciation."

On Tuesday, sterling dropped under $1.20 and hit its lowest

since a flash crash in October 2016 and the outlook is still

pretty cloudy. Johnson has said he will now push for a snap

election, which would add yet another major source of

uncertainty.

The dollar gave up a two-year high touched on Wednesday

against a basket of currencies .DXY to trade at 98.915, giving

ground to the yuan CNY=D3 and steadying against the euro, with

one euro buying $1.0975.

The yen JPY=EBS weakened slightly to 106.11 per dollar

after a Bank of Japan board member said the central bank must

pre-emptively ease monetary policy to fend off risks to the

economy. The dollar's pullback was prompted by manufacturing activity

in the world's biggest economy contracting for the first time in

three years last month, according to data from the Institute for

Supply Management. That knocked the wind out of a previously rising greenback

and rallied the bond market as investors increased bets on a

couple of Federal Reserve rate cuts before Christmas.

A 25-basis-point cut is now fully priced in, while yields on

benchmark 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR , which fall when prices

rise, dropped to their lowest in two years.

"The expectation that the Fed will come to the rescue has

increased," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at

National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"But it's not a capitulation on the dollar. It's just merely

stopped the recent rise of the dollar."

The dollar's weakness help pull the yuan CNY=D3 from an

11-year low to reach 7.1669 per dollar. Its rise was tempered as

traders kept a wary eye on trade risks, with U.S. President

Donald Trump promising a tougher line on Beijing if trade talks

drag on.

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