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FOREX-Muted reaction in currencies to US-China trade deal; dollar index falls

Published 16/01/2020, 10:18
© Reuters.  FOREX-Muted reaction in currencies to US-China trade deal; dollar index falls
DXY
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* Euro/dollar matches 1-week high

* Chinese yuan flat vs dollar, but comfortable below 7

* Sterling rises to 6-day high vs dollar

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Major currencies mostly shrugged

off on Thursday the signing of the Phase-1 trade deal between

the United States and China, as most of the issues agreed upon

had been expected by investors since the summer.

Euro/dollar, the most fluid currency pair, was last trading

up 0.1% at $1.1164 EUR=EBS , matching the one-week high it

reached the day before.

An index which tracks the dollar against six other major

currencies fell to an eight-day low of 97.14 .DXY .

Beijing and Washington touted the Phase 1 deal, signed late

on Wednesday at the White House, as a step forward in resolving

their bitter trade dispute. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence fed optimism about further

progress, saying further Phase 2 discussions had already begun.

Yet market exuberance was checked because much of this was

priced in already and because it addresses few of the issues

that led to the trade conflict in the first place.

"Yesterday's signing of the phase one trade deal provided

confirmation of the progress made in trade talks since last

summer. The details of the deal were broadly in line with

expectations which have dampened the market impact overnight,"

said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

But other than the fact that it met expectations, analysts

said the agreement does not fully eliminate tariffs and is vague

on enforcement, and makes no real progress on host of thorny

problems. Some were also sceptical that purchase targets set out

in the deal are realistic.

"The deal relies heavily on China's goodwill and includes

forced purchases of U.S. goods and protection for Intellectual

Property rights and forced technology transfers," said Sebastien

Galy, strategist at Nordea Asset Management.

The centrepiece of the trade deal is a pledge by China to

purchase at least an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. farm

products and other goods and services over two years. The United

States will also cut by half the tariff rate it imposed on Sept.

1 on a $120 billion list of Chinese goods, to 7.5%.

"Some demands are extremely hard to swallow, such as

changing laws to accommodate the U.S. Overall, it feels like

something that will not last more than a few months," Galy said.

The Chinese yuan, the currency most sensitive to the

two-year U.S.-China trade dispute, was also 0.1% higher at

6.8852 per dollar in the offshore market CNH=EBS , not far from

the six-month high of 6.8662 it jumped to on Tuesday.

The level 7 in dollar/yuan has been a barometer for

U.S.-China tensions, so the fact that the Chinese remnibi has

remained below this level shows that investors remain more or

less optimistic about the trade relationship between the world's

two biggest economies and its impact on global growth.

The safe-haven Japanese yen JPY=EBS was 0.1% softer at

110.03 per dollar, while the Australian dollar held 0.1% firmer

at $0.6916. Both of these currencies were also a gauge of

stress.

The British pound rose to a six-day high of $1.3065

GBP=D3 . Against the euro, it was trading at 85.45 pence, 0.1%

higher EURGBP=D3 .

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