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FOREX-Yen, franc rise as coronavirus uncertainty outweigh stimulus hopes

Published 03/03/2020, 13:38
Updated 03/03/2020, 13:45
© Reuters.  FOREX-Yen, franc rise as coronavirus uncertainty outweigh stimulus hopes
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* Euro knocked off five-week high

* Yen, Swiss franc gain as investors still see uncertainty

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updates, adds quote)

By Ritvik Carvalho and Iain Withers

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - The safe-haven Japanese yen and

Swiss franc gained on the dollar on Tuesday, as investor hopes

for global monetary easing were tempered by concern over how

much it could do to combat the economic damage from the

coronavirus outbreak.

Global stocks and oil rallied on Tuesday, and safe haven

assets -- gold, the yen, and the franc -- were standouts as risk

appetite grew in anticipation of stimulus from central banks.

G7 finance ministers and central bank governors were due to

hold a conference on Tuesday at 1200 GMT to discuss how to deal

with the outbreak and its economic fallout. The call comes with markets already betting the U.S. Federal

Reserve will lead a round of global monetary easing. MKTS/GLOB

However, Reuters reported that the draft G7 statement had no

fresh fiscal or monetary pledges, tempering investor optimism

and encouraging a flight to safety.

The dollar fell 0.34% to 107.95 yen JPY= and 0.14% to

0.958 francs CHF= .

"I think there is some disappointment on the back of the

Reuters report that there's unlikely to be an explicit

stimulus," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at MUFG.

"That has triggered some disappointment. We are in wait and

see mode. Even if we do see a powerful policy response, the

impact of coronavirus will still weigh heavily on the market."

In a statement, expected on Tuesday or Wednesday, the G7

countries will pledge to work together to mitigate damage to

their economies, without giving specifics, a source with

knowledge of the draft told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

That leaves investors again confronting fundamentals: The

virus and the economic slowdown it is causing, and the damage

looks as if it won't be confined to China-exposed assets.

"For many investors there is the view, perhaps, that central

banks can do a lot to help the symptoms of this crisis but

they're not going to entirely make it go away," said Jane Foley,

currency strategist at Rabobank in London.

"There is going to be uncertainty about the economic impact

of this virus, and given that, there will be safe haven demand."

The extra room to respond in the United States, where the

Federal Reserve's benchmark rate is 1.5% to 1.75% compared with

zero in Europe, has weighed on the dollar.

However, after the European Central Bank said it was ready

to take "targeted" steps to fight the virus's effects

the euro fell from a five-week high on Tuesday.

The dollar index was 0.04% higher at 97.571 =USD and the

euro was 0.15% lower at $1.112 EUR=

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 gained after the Reserve Bank

of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by only 25 basis points,

as anticipated. Markets had priced the possibility of a larger

cut. "Assurances of easier liquidity and fiscal support may help

stabilise the sentiment in the very short term, but the risk of

a higher rate of COVID-19 infections needs to be monitored

closely," Citi EM Asia economist Johanna Chua said in a note.

"The situation remains fluid and a lot depends on how

successful the G7 conference call is in keeping up with the

expectations of coordinated easing."

Euro zone consumer prices came in as expected, rising more

slowly in February than in January, up 1.2% year-on-year after a

1.4% rise the previous month. Later on Tuesday, the results of the Super Tuesday

Democratic Party primaries in the United States are expected.

The Bank of Canada meets to set its policy rate on Wednesday.

World markets performance https://tmsnrt.rs/37RShMa

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