* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
By Saikat Chatterjee
LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - The yen gained on Monday, rising
to its highest against the dollar in nearly a year and a half as
hedge funds bought the Japanese currency on concerns that a
prolonged China-U.S. trade war could tip the global economy into
recession.
The rest of the foreign exchange market, meanwhile, saw
major currencies such as the euro and the dollar pinned in tight
ranges after Friday's comments from U.S. President Donald Trump,
saying that the United States would not agree a trade deal with
Beijing for now. Against the dollar JPY=EBS the yen climbed a quarter of a
percentage point to 105.32 yen, closing in on its highest
against the U.S. currency since March 2018, barring a flash
crash in January this year.
The yen also registered similar gains against the euro
EURJPY= and the British pound GBPJPY= , rising by a quarter
of a percentage point and two tenths of a point respectively.
"Risk indicators and global markets have become more shaky
and the yen is reflecting those concerns, and safe-haven
shelters like the yen and the Swiss franc should continue to
benefit," said Commerzbank currency strategist Esther Reichelt.
Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth,
warning at the weekend that a trade deal is unlikely before the
2020 presidential election and that the risks of recession are
increasing. The yen is the top performer among its big rivals in global
foreign exchange markets, rising 3% this month as investors have
shown increased demand for Japanese government bonds after China
weakened the yuan below 7 per dollar last week.
As a result, hedge funds that usually borrow in yen to
finance leveraged bets in other asset classes have been forced
into a rapid unwinding of short positions on the yen, sending
the Japanese currency higher.
All eyes will be on Chinese figures on July retail sales and
industrial output, due on Wednesday, to gauge the impact on
domestic activity from the long-running trade conflict with the
United States.
Market attention will also be on the U.S. Federal Reserve
annual symposium at Jackson Hole later in the week, with
investors seeking greater clarity on the future path of interest
rates. Markets are expecting 60 basis points of rate cuts from
the Fed by the end of the year. FEDWATCH
The euro was a shade firmer against the dollar at $1.1207
EUR= , bound between resistance at $1.1249 and support at
$1.1175.
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Hedge funds and JPY https://tmsnrt.rs/2YGkfdt
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