Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
Investing.com - Bank of America reports that foreign exchange quantitative signals indicate market sentiment is leaning bearish on the U.S. dollar ahead of the Consumer Price Index data release scheduled for Wednesday.
Option flow analysis reveals increased demand for call options on emerging market currencies, particularly the Mexican peso, South African rand, and Polish zloty, according to the Bank of America report. The financial institution notes that the U.S. dollar is experiencing broad-based downtrends against major emerging market currencies.
Among G10 currencies, Bank of America identifies USD/JPY as the only dollar uptrend, which could potentially reverse if the exchange rate breaks below the 147 level. The report also highlights that the pattern of dollar selling during U.S. trading hours has resumed since late June.
Bank of America predicts the broad U.S. dollar downtrend will likely continue if Wednesday’s CPI data comes in at or below consensus expectations. The financial institution’s analysis suggests market participants are positioning for potential dollar weakness following the inflation report.
The report cautions that an upside surprise in core CPI figures could reset market expectations, potentially disrupting the current bearish dollar sentiment that has been building in currency markets.
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