UBS maintains bearish stance on the pound with a clear EUR/GBP target

Published 04/09/2025, 11:26
UBS maintains bearish stance on the pound with a clear EUR/GBP target

Investing.com - UBS has reaffirmed its bearish outlook on the British pound, maintaining its year-end target for the EUR/GBP exchange rate at 0.8800, according to a research note released Monday.

The Swiss banking giant cited upcoming UK budget concerns as a key factor in its sterling forecast, noting that political news flow and "orchestrated proposal leaks" are likely to increase in the coming weeks ahead of the budget announcement expected in late October or early November.

UBS analysts expressed skepticism about any positive outcomes for the pound from the budget, suggesting that anticipated tax hikes would impact "already-lacklustre economic activity" while relaxation of fiscal rules could "further de-anchor the gilt market."

The bank identified Monday’s lows around 0.8650 as "likely to be a strong support" for the EUR/GBP pair, adjusting its previous strategy that had hoped for a dip toward 0.8550 to re-engage with long EUR/GBP positions.

UBS acknowledged its end-Q3 target of 0.8700 might be "too conservative" given recent market movements, but expressed reluctance to raise its 0.8800 year-end forecast further due to potential risks to the euro stemming from French politics in the near term.

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