UBS raises USD/JPY end-Q3 target to 140.00 amid BoJ dovishness

Published 09/07/2025, 12:32
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Investing.com - UBS has revised its USD/JPY end-Q3 target to 140.00 from its previous forecast of 135.00, while maintaining its year-end target at 130.00.

The financial services firm acknowledged it was wrong in expecting an end-Q2 level of 138.00, as the currency pair ended the quarter much higher around 144.00. UBS now projects a trading range of 140.00 to 150.00 for the third quarter.

UBS analysts cite the Bank of Japan’s "ultra-dovish stance" and the possibility of a general USD rebound amid wider positioning shifts as factors that could push the pair toward its 200-day moving average near 150.00. The BoJ’s focus on tariff risks adds to this upside potential.

Trade tensions between Japan and the US remain a significant factor in the currency outlook. UBS notes that if Japan fails to reach a deal with the US that avoids reciprocal tariffs, it could encourage more BoJ dovishness, affecting the currency pair.

For the longer term, UBS maintains its existing view, suggesting potential downside for USD/JPY if US-Japan rate differentials narrow, particularly if UBS economists are correct about risks to the US labor market over the summer.

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