Adyen’s Q4 earnings exceed forecasts, shares surge over 13%

Investing.com -- Adyen (AS:ADYEN) shares surged over 13% on Thursday after the Dutch payments firm reported a strong fourth quarter and issued guidance that reassured investors about its growth trajectory. 

The company’s performance in the final months of 2024 exceeded market expectations, with net revenue and EBITDA margins coming in ahead of forecasts, despite some pressure on Total (EPA:TTEF) Payment Volume (TPV). 

Analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) both noted that the results supported Adyen’s outlook for 2025, easing concerns about growth sustainability.

Adyen reported a 23% year-over-year increase in net revenue for the fourth quarter, reaching €584 million, surpassing consensus estimates of 21%. 

The company’s EBITDA margin for the second half of 2024 stood at 52.6%, with EBITDA reaching €569 million—5% ahead of consensus expectations projections. Free cash flow also outperformed, reinforcing the strength of Adyen’s financial position.

While TPV grew 15% year-over-year to €346 billion, it came in below consensus estimates, missing by 8% overall and 3% against Morgan Stanley’s forecast. 

The shortfall was largely attributed to a previously flagged decline in volumes from a single large digital customer, which had also weighed on third-quarter results. 

However, excluding this customer, Adyen’s processed volume saw a 29% year-over-year increase in Q4, marking an acceleration from Q3. 

The company’s take rate also improved to 16.9 basis points, up from 15.5 basis points in the previous quarter.

Growth across other business segments remained solid. Unified Commerce and Platforms continued to perform well, with platforms remaining the fastest-growing division, recording a 44% increase in volume. 

In-store TPV expanded at an even faster pace, rising 49% year-over-year, outpacing online growth. 

Meanwhile, Adyen’s embedded financial products added €5.8 million in net interest income during the first half of the year, reflecting strong adoption of its broader financial services offerings.

For 2025, Adyen projects a slight acceleration in annual net revenue growth, with current consensus estimates suggesting a 24% year-over-year rise. 

They also foresee further EBITDA margin expansion, though at a slower rate than in 2024. Despite planning to increase hiring at a faster pace than last year, Adyen expects net revenue growth to exceed team growth, thus maintaining efficiency improvements.

Barclays and Morgan Stanley both consider Adyen’s guidance to be in line with existing market expectations. 

Analysts suggest that while upward revisions to 2025 forecasts are improbable, Adyen’s track record of delivering consistent results with lower volatility should be sufficient to maintain positive stock price momentum.