Analyst says iPhone demand propped up by pricing, pull-ahead ahead of tariffs

Investing.com -- Loop Capital analysts said in a note Friday that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shipped 45 million iPhones in the second quarter of 2025, matching its forecast, as fears over tariffs and aggressive promotions helped offset an otherwise flat global smartphone market.

Loop Capital called the quarter “about as chaotic as any quarter in recent memory,” citing “massive demand pull ahead to beat said proposed tariffs” and “exceptionally aggressive pricing programs” that prevented a steeper decline in shipments. 

"Unit shipments globally were 282M, essentially flat with the 283M last year and compared to the 300M shipped in CQ1 2025," Loop Capital wrote.

“While it may seem like we are taking a victory lap regarding the AAPL shipment number (heck, we are),” the analysts added, acknowledging that the outcome was driven by unexpected factors. 

Apple “flew iPhones into the USA during the early panicking relative to tariffs,” while also ramping up promotions during China’s month-long 618 shopping festival and launching “aggressive U.S. and European giveaways.”

In China, Apple shipped 9.7 million iPhones, ranking fifth behind Huawei, Vivo, Xiaomi (OTC:XIACF), and others. 

Gains were said to have been driven by price cuts “as much as 40%” and Apple’s participation in government subsidy programs. 

However, Loop questioned the sustainability of such deep discounting amid signs that Chinese consumers are favoring local brands.

While all major vendors saw a similar tariff-related pull-ahead, “AAPL was the majority beneficiary from a unit perspective,” Loop said.

The firm lowered its global smartphone shipment forecasts, trimming 2025 projections to 1.21 billion units, down 2%, and reducing 2026 and 2027 estimates by 3.5% and just under 3%, respectively. 

Loop said the global market is recovering from “losses (collectively) over the past 7+ years,” driven in part by emerging AI-enabled devices.