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Investing.com -- BTIG has downgraded NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE:SMR) to “neutral” from “buy,” citing limited visibility into orderbook growth and stretched valuation following a sharp rally in the stock.
NuScale shares have more than doubled since mid-May, when management projected its first U.S. order would be booked by year-end.
Analysts said the company still supports NuScale’s long-term potential but believes the stock’s recent gains have outpaced near-term fundamentals. The S&P 500 gained about 4% over the same period.
NuScale’s current valuation stands at roughly 92x consensus 2025 EV/Sales estimates of $58 million.
BTIG does not provide a price target for neutral-rated names. Revenue is projected to grow from $48.03 million in 2025 to $115.5 million in 2026, with long-term estimates pointing to a 50%-55% CAGR through 2032, then slowing to around 8% annually through 2050.
The company received NRC Standard Design Approval in May and continues to benefit from federal policy support for nuclear energy.
Unlike many peers, NuScale’s reactor design uses conventional 3%-5% enriched nuclear fuel, avoiding reliance on uncommercialized HALEU fuel.
Cost estimates for NuScale’s ~0.5GW SMR plants are around $10 million per megawatt, down from earlier projections of $15 million/MW for the UAMPS project.
This represents an about 80% premium to the sticker price for Vogtle Units 3 and 4 and about 30% discount to delivered costs. BTIG noted these figures are still subject to change, with risks skewed to the upside.
NuScale has one customer to date, RoPower in Romania, with a final investment decision expected in 2026. Analysts expect any first U.S. customer, whether a hyperscaler or utility, would be a positive step toward commercialization.
Fluor (NYSE:FLR), NuScale’s EPC partner and largest shareholder since 2011, is gradually reducing its stake.
As of Q1 2025, 151 million Class B units, about 53% of shares, remain to be converted to Class A before entering the public market.
BTIG expects NuScale to reach positive operating cash flow in 2026, assuming U.S. orders materialize.
Despite optimism for long-term deployments in the U.S., Europe and Korea, analysts are waiting for backlog visibility and clearer project economics before upgrading the rating.