In a note to clients Thursday, Morgan Stanley analysts acknowledged the announcement of Boeing's (NYSE:BA) new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, but said that significant challenges and uncertainties persist for the company.
While the appointment provides some clarity on leadership, the analysts maintained an Equal-weight rating on Boeing.
"We remain Equal-weight as we continue to see a number of near-term challenges and uncertainties facing the company," wrote the bank.
They have, however, increased their price target from $180 to $195, reflecting a higher multiple on 2027 free cash flow (FCF) due to the resolution of leadership uncertainty.
Morgan Stanley says Kelly Ortberg, a veteran aerospace executive and former CEO of Rockwell Collins, is expected to bring stability and experience to Boeing.
Despite this positive development, they believe the company faces substantial operational challenges. Boeing's stock saw a modest increase of approximately 2% following the announcement, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.6% rise.
This market reaction occurred even as Boeing's 2024 FCF outlook declined significantly due to working capital headwinds and ongoing operational difficulties.
Morgan Stanley's revised 2024 FCF estimate now shows a usage of $(8.3) billion, a substantial decrease from the previous estimate of $(2.0) billion and consensus of $(2.7) billion prior to the 2Q24 report. The magnitude of this decline appears to be underappreciated by investors, but the earlier-than-expected CEO announcement has generated some positive sentiment.
The analysts note that investor sentiment has been skewing positive, with some seeing Boeing's current operating results as closer to a trough than a peak.
However, concerns remain regarding Boeing's long-term earnings power and the continued delay in normalizing free cash flow.
"Bearish investors are concerned about Boeing’s long-term earnings power, especially as return to normalized free cash flow continues to defer to the right," added Morgan Stanley.
Additionally, they said uncertainties surrounding Boeing's IAM 751 labor union contract, expiring on September 12, 2024, pose further risks.