Citi bullish on Lilly as Orforglipron unlocks $40B+ obesity market

Published 25/06/2025, 12:18
©  Reuters

Investing.com -- Citi reaffirmed its bullish view on Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) stock as it sees significant upside from orforglipron, the company’s once-daily oral obesity drug candidate.

The bank forecasts over $40 billion in sales beyond 2030, well ahead of the $25 billion consensus, driven by what it describes as “a dynamic consumer-centric market.”

The launch of orforglipron, expected in 2026, comes as the obesity treatment landscape transitions from injectables to oral formulations.

Citi argues that LillyDirect, the company’s digital pharmacy platform, is set to play a central role in expanding access and visibility, especially in lower and mid-BMI patients.

The analysts estimate the potential consumer platform opportunity at around $15 billion, which is not currently reflected in their model.

“Whether this becomes a reality or not, we remain bullish on Lilly/orforglipron” following its presentation at the ADA Scientific Sessions event, Citi’s team led by Geoff Meacham wrote.

The bank maintains a Buy rating and the target price of $1,190 on Eli Lilly shares. 

Prescription data further supports the strength of the platform. Since LillyDirect began distributing Zepbound last August, scripts through the platform have surged 178%
quarter-over-quarter, compared to a 19% increase in overall Zepbound prescriptions.

This “suggests to us the platform is now at scale,” the analysts said.

They see orforglipron benefiting from a pricing strategy based on income tiers, enabling wider reach without sacrificing pricing power.

The analysts proposed a $50–$300 range depending on income brackets, noting that the largest market potential lies in the $100,000–$250,000 income group within the BMI 25–30 range.

“The analysis pegs the consumer platform opportunity at ~$15B, which isn’t assumed in our model,” they noted, adding that the drug could gain more rapid global access through a centralized out-of-pocket payment model rather than traditional country-by-country launches.

“An income-based tiered pricing of orforglipron via LillyDirect could unlock unprecedented volume all the while allowing it to maintain overall pricing power,” the report states.

Beyond obesity and diabetes, orforglipron is also being explored for indications such as hypertension and sleep apnea, with potential use in lipidemias and inflammation highlighted during the ADA presentation.

Eli Lilly shares closed at $778.08 on June 24, with Citi’s price target implying nearly 53% total return upside.

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