Core PCE price index and economic data in focus this Friday

As traders approach another pivotal day for financial markets, a series of crucial economic data releases that could sway market dynamics are expected on Friday, October 31, 2025. The Core PCE Price Index will take center stage, serving as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This critical indicator will provide insights into underlying price pressures within the U.S. economy and potentially influence future monetary policy decisions.

Major Economic Events to Watch

• 8:30 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index (Forecast:0.2%, Previous: 0.2%): The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, excluding volatile food and energy prices, helps determine the central bank’s monetary policy stance.

Other Important Economic Events to Watch

• 8:30 AM ET - Employment Cost Index (Forecast:0.9%, Previous: 0.9%): Measures changes in the price businesses and government pay for civilian labor, offering insights into wage inflation pressures.

• 8:30 AM ET - Personal Spending (Forecast:0.4%, Previous: 0.6%): Tracks changes in consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of U.S. economic activity.

• 8:30 AM ET - PCE Price Index (Previous:0.3%): Measures the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption, providing a broader inflation picture.

• 8:30 AM ET - PCE Price Index YoY (Previous:2.7%): The year-over-year change in the PCE Price Index, showing longer-term inflation trends.

• 8:30 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index YoY (Previous:2.9%): The annual change in core prices, excluding food and energy, offering perspective on underlying inflation.

• 9:45 AM ET - Chicago PMI (Forecast:42.3, Previous: 40.6): Indicates manufacturing sector health in the Chicago region, with readings below 50 signaling contraction.

• 11:30 AM ET - Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Provides a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current quarter.

• 12:00 PM ET - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic may provide insights into the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

• 1:00 PM ET - Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (Previous:420): A leading indicator of demand for oil products and services in the oil drilling industry.

• 1:00 PM ET - U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (Previous:550): Tracks the total number of active drilling rigs across all sectors.

Other Economic Events to Watch

• 8:30 AM ET - Employment Benefits (Previous:0.70%): Measures changes in the cost of benefits provided to employees.

• 8:30 AM ET - Employment Wages (Previous:1.00%): Tracks changes in wage costs for employers.

• 8:30 AM ET - Personal Income (Forecast:0.4%, Previous: 0.4%): Measures changes in income received from all sources by consumers.

• 8:30 AM ET - Real Personal Consumption (Previous:0.4%): Tracks inflation-adjusted consumer spending on goods and services.

• 9:00 AM ET - Dallas Fed PCE (Previous:2.80%): An alternative measure of inflation that trims extreme price changes to better identify underlying inflation trends.

• 9:30 AM ET - Fed Logan Speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan may offer perspectives on monetary policy and economic conditions.

For further information and the latest updates, please refer to our Economic Calendar, here

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.