The US non-farm payroll (NFP) is projected to have increased by 180,000 in October, a decline from September's 336,000, according to recent forecasts. Concurrently, the US unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 3.8%. Wage growth may see a slight uptick of 0.1%, while the annual measure could decrease from 4.2% to 4.0%.
In the lead-up to the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 13th, two Employment Situation Reports and a pair of inflation reports are expected to be published. Despite the Federal Reserve being at its terminal level, focus may shift towards the duration of restrictive rates rather than further hikes.
Earlier last week, data from the US ISM manufacturing release indicated a drop in the employment sub-index to contractionary territory, falling to 46.8 from 51.2. This was ahead of the ISM services PMI release. Additionally, the ADP non-farm employment change data showed an increase to 113,000 from 89,000, although it fell short of the estimated 150,000.
In currency markets, a weaker NFP print could bolster the EUR/USD exchange rate and push the Dollar Index down to daily support at 105.76. The Dollar Index, which reflects the US dollar's performance against a basket of other currencies, currently appears rangebound within a bullish flag pattern on the weekly timeframe and is awaiting breakout confirmation.
From a monthly perspective, there is potential for growth up to resistance at 109.33. This comes as market participants anticipate further developments in US economic indicators and policy direction from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
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