UBS cuts Brent crude oil forecasts
Investing.com -- Donald Trump currently holds one of the strongest stock market track records among modern U.S. presidents, with the S&P 500 rising in three of his four years during his first term.
Only Ronald Reagan had a higher percentage of up years, while Trump is now tied with Bill Clinton for third best, according to RBC’s analysts.
However, the sharp market selloff in recent days has cast doubt on whether that record will hold. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 10% in just two sessions, reviving comparisons to 2018 — the only year of Trump’s first term when the index declined.
From a historical perspective, only George W. Bush in 2001 experienced a similarly poor start from a market standpoint at this stage in a presidential cycle.
The year of 2018 saw heightened fears of a Fed policy misstep, elevated valuations, and the peak of U.S.-China trade tensions.
“We see 2018’s growth scare as a decent template for thinking about the political backdrop for stocks today,” RBC analysts noted, pointing to parallels in policy uncertainty and investor sentiment.
At the same time, Trump’s net approval rating has turned negative again in recent updates. Strategists highlight that this decline has coincided with the market’s latest drop, suggesting potential political sensitivity to equity performance.
“To the extent there is a Trump put, we suspect it may show up in polling data – i.e., he may be more reactive to that than moves in the equity market,” analysts added.
A Marquette Law School poll showed Trump facing a net negative approval rating ahead of a fresh round of tariff announcements.
The survey, conducted between March 17–27, found 46% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance while 54% disapprove. The poll surveyed 1,021 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
On the issue of tariffs, public sentiment was skeptical. A majority, 58%, said they believe tariffs hurt the economy, while just 28% said they help. Another 14% said tariffs make little difference.