With uncertainty rising, is gold’s bull run far from over?
Investing.com -- A €17 billion non-binding offer for SFR’s telecom unit from a consortium of Bouygues, Iliad and Orange has been publicly disclosed and quickly rejected, setting the stage for a high-stakes negotiation that analysts believe still has a high probability of ending in a deal.
Although the consortium knew the offer would be rebuffed, JPMorgan argues that taking it public shifts pressure onto Patrick Drahi and, crucially, the creditors, who now control around 45% of SFR’s equity after the debt restructuring.
Drahi is the founder and controlling shareholder of the European-based telecom group Altice, the parent company of SFR, which he took private in 2021 through the delisting of Altice Europe.
JPMorgan writes that “the stars remain aligned for a deal” and that “the path ahead seems all but inevitable,” pointing to a rare alignment of pressure points across Drahi, creditors and the bidding consortium.
The Wall Street giant highlights that all parties have strategic incentives to reach an agreement. Drahi needs a sale as his “only route to creating equity value,” creditors want to avoid a fresh restructuring, and the bidding operators see consolidation as a way to repair the market and unlock synergies.
With SFR’s EBITDA still falling at a double-digit rate and leverage at around 5x, the analysts argue that the company has limited negotiating leverage despite claims it is targeting €23 billion.
JPMorgan estimates standalone value at around €16 billion and sees deal economics supporting a takeout closer to €20.5 billion, well below seller expectations but above the €17 billion headline bid.
The bank notes that while Drahi is reportedly sounding out multiple buyers, market sources quoted in the report insist there is “only one buyer” and that the consortium may have limited capacity to lift the bid beyond €18 billion.
Time pressure is another key factor. JPMorgan analysts say that while SFR’s recent restructuring pushed out debt maturities, regulatory approval would take 13–18 months, and any deal would need to be signed by mid-2026 to be completed before 2029 maturities.
Without a transaction, analysts warn that SFR risks another default scenario in which Drahi could lose all equity.
Unions and politicians have already raised concerns over potential job cuts and store closures, signalling regulatory and social pushback ahead.
Irrespective of consolidation, JPMorgan remains bullish on Bouygues and Orange. For Orange, analysts call 2025 a “break-out year” with upcoming catalysts including MasOrange proceeds, a potential buyout and a February 2026 capital markets day where management could guide to double-digit EPS and cash flow growth.
Bouygues, which JPMorgan recently upgraded to Overweight, is seen as undervalued with further upside from Equans margin expansion and potential bolt-on M&A, and its exposure to energy transition and data infrastructure themes is expected to attract investor interest.