GE Vernova outlook revised to positive, maintains ’BBB’ rating: Fitch

Published 12/03/2025, 21:08
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has upgraded the outlook for GE Vernova Inc. from Stable to Positive, while affirming its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured debt at ’BBB’.

The revised outlook reflects a growth in Vernova’s Power and Electrification backlog, positive demand trends, operational execution, and progress in margin expansion. The rating could be further upgraded if EBITDA margins continue to trend towards the low double-digits and Free Cash Flow (FCF) margins move above 5%, as measured by Fitch.

Vernova’s improving operating profile is driven by its extensive installed base, mainly in gas power, which generates substantial high-margin services revenue. The company is streamlining its cost structure and focusing on R&D, with a 20% increase expected in 2025.

The gas turbines account for most of Vernova’s power sales and are expected to remain crucial for meeting growing energy demand, even as renewable energy sources expand. Vernova is investing in production capacity to address a high backlog in the gas business and support higher sales over the next several years.

Despite challenging industry conditions in the wind segment, increased project selectivity and product standardization have helped improve onshore margins. Vernova is also focused on improved selectivity in the offshore wind business, but difficult industry economics result in little visibility around future revenue after current projects are completed.

Investments in energy infrastructure in Vernova’s European and U.S. markets are rising due to increased energy usage and adjustments to the electrical grid as intermittent renewable energy sources connect to the transmission system. The Electrification segment’s restructuring, pricing discipline and deal selectivity improved profitability compared to recurring losses in the segment prior to 2023.

Fitch forecasts Vernova’s FCF after dividends in the mid-single digits due to solid sales growth and expanding EBITDA margins over several years from about 5% in 2024 as calculated by Fitch. Near term, FCF may benefit from customer deposits linked to recent order growth.

Vernova’s on-balance sheet debt is minimal, with EBITDA leverage under 1x at the end of 2024, as it strengthens its operating profile and manages the wind business through a challenging environment. Low leverage supports the company’s financial flexibility for business investment and discretionary cash deployment.

Vernova competes in the gas turbine and wind turbine markets and is one of several large global providers that include Siemens (ETR:SIEGn) Energy and Vestas. Vernova maintains low leverage, which mitigates low, but improving, margins and constrained FCF in the near term at the wind business.

Vernova’s EBITDA margin in the single-digit range in 2024 as calculated by Fitch is below other ’BBB’ category-rated issuers such as Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) Corporation (BBB/Stable) and Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) Corporation (BBB+/Stable) which generate EBITDA margins in the low double-digits and mid-teens, respectively.

As of Dec. 31, 2024, liquidity included cash of $8.2 billion, including restricted cash of $438 million, and a $3 billion revolving credit facility that expires in 2029. This high level of liquidity provides flexibility to adjust to project timing, working capital requirements, and weak results in the offshore wind business. Liquidity is offset by outstanding debt of less than $100 million. Fitch includes an adjustment for supply chain financing totaling approximately $800 million at the end of 2024.

Vernova’s net pension liabilities at the end of 2024 totaled approximately $945 million and were 94% funded. The company plans to contribute slightly more than $100 million in 2025.

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