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Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on Amrize (NYSE:AMRZ), a North American cement and roofing company, with a “neutral” rating and a 12-month price target of $57, representing 15% upside from the June 30 closing price of $49.55.
The brokerage’s evaluation flags Amrize’s leading position in U.S. cement, balanced against near-term headwinds in construction demand.
Amrize holds a 23% share of the 104 million ton U.S. cement market, the highest among domestic producers, with over 50% local market share within a 150-mile radius of its plants.
This geographic concentration provides pricing power in a sector where transport costs are high.
Goldman estimates Amrize’s cement EBITDA margins at approximately 40%, underpinned by a logistics network that ships more than 60% of cement by rail and barge.
The company’s operational scale includes 18 cement plants (13 U.S., 5 Canada), 141 terminals, and 55 cementitious operations.
Amrize’s Building Materials segment accounts for 71% of sales and 77% of EBITDA, while its Building Envelope business, developed through seven acquisitions since 2021, makes up 29% of sales and 23% of EBITDA. Building Envelope margins have expanded from 15% in 2021 to 23% in 2024.
Revenue is projected to rise modestly from $11.7 billion in 2024 to $12.9 billion by 2027.
Earnings per share is expected to increase from $2.69 in 2024 to $3.60 in 2027. Free cash flow per share is forecast at $0.07 in 2025, rising to $3.92 in 2027.
Amrize is targeting capital returns with $1.6 billion in planned share repurchases annually from 2026.
The U.S. cement industry remains in a structural net import position, with 24% of demand met by imports due to prohibitive domestic replacement costs ($800–$1,000 per ton).
Amrize imports only a small portion of its cement, largely from Canada. The company is investing in capacity expansions, including a fifth mill at its St. Genevieve plant and a new clinker line in Quebec.
Despite these strengths, Goldman cites a deceleration in private non-residential construction as a limiting factor.
Construction spending is expected to grow just 1% in 2025, down from 7% in 2024, driven by weaker trends in manufacturing, warehousing, and office space.