Street Calls of the Week
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs upgraded Haleon (LON:HLN) to “buy” from “neutral,” citing improving fundamentals and an attractive entry valuation, and set a new 12-month price target of 440p, up from 415p.
The brokerage expects Haleon to return to best-in-class organic sales growth, projecting 4.7% in FY26 and 5.1% in FY27, driven by emerging market volumes, a U.S. recovery, and continued high-single-digit growth in Oral Health.
Operating margins are forecast to expand 130 basis points by FY27, surpassing consensus estimates of 100 basis points, aided by accelerated delivery of £800 million in gross productivity savings from supply chain optimisation.
Despite this, projected FY27 EBIT margins of 23.6% remain below peers such as Reckitt’s former Health business at roughly 29%. EPS growth of 11% is expected in FY26 and FY27.
Organic sales growth in H2 2025 is expected to accelerate to 4.1%, up from 3.9% in Q3, with gains in Asia-Pacific and EMEA/LATAM offsetting a -0.8% contraction in North America.
A return to growth in the U.S. is anticipated in FY26 as inventory levels improve and innovation continues.
Emerging markets are expected to benefit from affordability initiatives, while developed markets may see slower growth in vitamins and dietary supplements.
Haleon’s Oral Health segment, representing 29% of group revenue, remains the core growth driver. Its Power brands, Sensodyne, Polident, and Parodontax, are expected to continue high-single-digit growth, particularly in emerging markets, supported by broader pricing options and increased distribution.
In developed markets, innovation-led premiumisation and closing the incidence versus treatment gap are expected to drive further gains.
The vitamins and dietary supplements category, or VMS, is facing slower growth in developed markets due to competition and high per capita consumption.
Haleon reported 0.9% organic sales growth in H1, with U.S. weakness affecting the segment, while emerging markets are expected to lead medium-term growth.
Margins are expected to benefit from supply chain efficiencies, including portfolio simplification and manufacturing improvements.
Early results have contributed to 160 basis points of gross margin expansion in H1, supporting reinvestment in advertising, promotion, and R&D.
FX and disposals have weighed on operating leverage but are expected to moderate as management pursues local sourcing and hedging strategies.
Strong cash flow generation is expected to support CapEx of roughly 4% of sales and further deleveraging, with net debt to EBITDA targeted at 2.5% by FY26.
Haleon also anticipates bolt-on acquisitions and increased shareholder returns, including £750 million in annual buybacks and a dividend payout ratio approaching 40% by FY27.
Beyond FY25, Goldman Sachs expects roughly 5% organic sales growth annually, driven by emerging market expansion and momentum in Oral Health.
EPS is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8%, above the 7% average in the staples sector.
Risks include slower-than-expected growth in key categories, increased competition, downtrading to private labels, foreign exchange volatility, potential dilutive M&A, and sector-specific litigation.
Goldman Sachs highlighted Haleon’s superior risk-reward relative to Reckitt, with 22% upside to the 12-month price target.