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Investing.com - The state of financial market conditions seems to be poised for a recovery, according to analysts at BofA Securities.
In a note, the strategists said their internal gauge of financial market regimes previously flipped from signalling a "recovery" to a "downturn" in March before further deteriorating in April and May, as investors warily eyed often erratic shifts in U.S. trade policy. In June, the indicator dropped "a hair," marking its fourth straight month in "downturn" territory.
However, the analysts said the indicator improved in June thanks to a range of improved inputs, such as sunnier earnings revisions, U.S. gross domestic product forecasts, and measures of business activity. These helped to counterbalance weakness in two other inputs into the tracker -- inflation and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.
The brokerage added that the data helped to underline the findings of a recent fund manager survey which showed a small increase in respondents expecting boom in the global economy over the next 12 months, rather than a period of high inflation and tepid growth known as "stagflation."
"We agree with this building minority," the BofA analysts argued, adding that a "confluence of factors" suggests that "the key tail risk that may not be priced in is not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom."
In particular, they argued that the "yawning U.S. deficit" could be solved by better nominal growth rather than cost-cutting. The recently-passed U.S. fiscal policy bill, along with plans in Germany for massive stimulus measures, could provide this "political impetus," the BofA analysts said.
Meanwhile, capital expenditures are seen rising in the U.S., as mega-cap tech companies race to harness artificial intelligence, firms outside of the U.S. increase their manufacturing capacity in the country, and various municipalities targeting infrastructure improvements, the analysts said.
Against this backdrop, the analysts predicted that their indicator would soon shift back to "recovery," unless the slate of economic data due out this week is underwhelming.
"This bodes well for an August Value rally: since 1990, Value led the index 10 out of 11 times in the first month of a recovery," the analysts wrote. "Value" stocks are typically those names with a stock price believed to be below the company’s true worth.