J.P. Morgan cuts Orion to “underweight” on weak carbon black market

Published 11/08/2025, 12:40
© Reuters

Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has downgraded Orion S.A. to “underweight” from “neutral,” citing deteriorating conditions in the global carbon black market and limited pricing power for 2026, in a note dated Monday. 

The brokerage expects global capacity utilization rates, currently in the low 70% range, to decline further over the next two years as capacity additions outpace demand growth. 

“We think that demand for carbon black is likely to grow a little more than 1% in 2025 with capacity growing more than 3% with flattish demand in the US and Europe,” said analysts at J.P. Morgan in a note.

According to the brokerage, major U.S. tire makers are closing older plants and slowing expansion plans due to market weakness and uncertainty. 

A shift in the domestic market toward lower-quality tires is also negatively affecting the carbon black mix in the U.S. Data from Orion shows U.S. tire production fell in 2024 and was down 10% year over year in the first five months of 2025. 

Tire imports into the U.S. have remained elevated, up 5.3% year to date through June, pushing import share above 60% of industry sell-through, compared with a historical low-50% range.

Both Cabot (NYSE:CBT) and Orion failed to secure contract price increases for 2025, and J.P. Morgan does not expect them to achieve price hikes in 2026 in the U.S. 

The brokerage anticipates flat or declining prices for domestic carbon black, which it says could result in underperformance for both companies’ shares. Specialty carbon volumes are also contracting, according to Orion.

Alongside the Orion downgrade, J.P. Morgan reiterated its “underweight” rating on Cabot. 

The brokerage set a December 2026 price target of $9 for Orion, down from $10 previously, and maintained a $75 target for Cabot.

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