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Investing.com -- Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, has been placed on Negative Catalyst Watch by J.P. Morgan analysts warned that uncertainty over the renewal of its long-standing distribution partnership with UniCredit could weigh on earnings growth, in a note dated Monday.
The brokerage also lowered its price target for the stock to €63 from €68, keeping a Neutral rating.
J.P. Morgan said Amundi “acknowledged there is a genuine risk its distribution partnership with UniCredit may not be renewed post 2027,” adding that the potential nonrenewal could affect “~16% on 2027E consensus earnings.”
The brokerage noted that the "probability of non-renewal of the UniCredit distribution agreement has increased to more than 50%,” prompting analysts to factor in a runoff of the €88 billion in assets under management (AuM) Amundi manages within UniCredit networks across Italy, Germany, Austria and Central and Eastern Europe.
The analysts estimated that if the partnership ends, about 90% of these assets would exit Amundi’s perimeter by 2028, reducing the contribution of UniCredit-related management fees from €365 million in 2025E to €106 million in 2028E.
As a result, J.P. Morgan cut its adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by 3% for 2027 and 7% for 2028, even as its 2025 forecast rose 4% following stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue.
“Even though our 2025E adjusted EPS estimate has actually increased by 4% on the back of a better revenue print seen in Q3, our 2027-28E adjusted EPS estimates have declined by 3% and 7% respectively, reflecting the UniCredit AuM run-off,” the analysts said.
Amundi’s adjusted EPS growth is now expected to average just 2% from 2024–2028, well below J.P. Morgan’s projections of 11% for DWS and 7% for Schroders.
The report described the company’s setup ahead of its Nov. 18 strategy update in Paris as “difficult,” noting that consensus estimates don’t “reflect the full extent of the earnings loss from the UniCredit agreement.”
At €64.30 per share as of Oct. 31, Amundi trades at roughly 10x 2027E consensus P/E, compared with DWS at 11x and Schroders at 10x.
Analysts said that with limited earnings growth, “we see some scope for near-term share price underperformance and place Amundi on Negative Catalyst Watch into the 18th November strategy update.”
Despite the pressure, the brokerage pointed to Amundi’s roughly 7% dividend yield and possible special capital distribution as partial support for the stock.
The analysts added that “the dividend yield of 7% and potential special announcement offers some downside protection.”
Amundi’s total assets under management stood at €1.95 trillion in 2025E, with management fees projected at €3.05 billion, according to the report. The firm’s adjusted operating margin was estimated at 48% for 2025, down slightly from 47.4% in 2024.
J.P. Morgan added that Amundi’s risk-reward profile remains “unfavourable,” pointing to slowing earnings growth and ongoing uncertainty from the potential UniCredit exit, while maintaining its “neutral” rating.