J.P. Morgan upgrades First Quantum, puts Norsk Hydro on Positive Catalyst Watch

Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has upgraded First Quantum Minerals Ltd., a Canadian copper producer, to an “overweight” rating and placed Norsk Hydro ASA, a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company, on a positive catalyst watch as part of its latest review of the EMEA base metals sector. 

The changes follow disruptions at several major mines in the third quarter of 2025, most notably at the Grasberg mine.

Patrick Jones, J.P. Morgan’s base metals analyst, said the disruptions have shifted the outlook for copper markets, with the bank now forecasting a global copper deficit in 2025 and 2026.

For First Quantum, J.P. Morgan expects a potential restart of its Cobre Panama mine in the second quarter of 2027, accompanied by a higher fiscal take.

This drives the firm’s fair value estimate to C$42 per share, representing roughly 30% upside from current levels.

Chile-based Antofagasta Plc, a major copper producer, remains a core holding for J.P. Morgan. 

The brokerage expects approximately 30% copper volume growth for the company by 2028, with spot EV/EBITDA declining from about 12x in 2025 to 6x in 2028. 

J.P. Morgan raised its December 2026 price target for Antofagasta to £35 per share from £25 per share, reaffirming an “overweight” rating and placing the company on its Analyst Focus List. By contrast, Swiss commodities giant Glencore Plc was downgraded to “neutral.”

For Norsk Hydro, J.P. Morgan expects results in line with expectations for the third quarter of 2025 but placed the company on Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of its capital markets day on November 27. 

The brokerage noted potential for lower medium-term capital expenditure guidance and mark-to-market upgrades to fourth-quarter EBITDA.

J.P. Morgan continues to recommend exposure to base metal miners in EMEA with stronger medium-term volume growth and improving valuations, favoring Antofagasta, First Quantum, and Norsk Hydro while maintaining a cautious view on Boliden AB. 

Estimates for third-quarter realized commodity prices and updated mark-to-market figures have been adjusted to reflect recent forward curves.