Kepler upgrades Dassault to ’buy’ after market overreacts to H1 results

Published 28/07/2025, 13:32
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded Dassault Aviation (EPA:AM) to "buy" from "hold" following what it described as an excessive market reaction to the company’s weaker-than-expected first-half results. 

The note dated Monday, maintained a target price of €327, reflecting a 23.3% upside from the current price of €265.20.

Dassault’s first-half performance fell short of expectations, leading to a drop in share value. 

However, Kepler Cheuvreux said the decline was likely overdone and noted that Dassault reiterated its full-year guidance despite the disappointing results. 

The brokerage said the outlook for the company’s core aviation business and its Rafale jet sales remains “solid.”

Kepler also said that additional tariffs on the Falcon business were not new information and may have already been priced in.

It added that Dassault has already taken steps to mitigate the impact, including reduced R&D spending. 

The company’s defense business continues to benefit from order backlogs in both domestic and export markets, supported by order intake optionality across up to three potential new markets.

Kepler Cheuvreux’s valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts methodology, using a 26.7% stake in Thales (EPA:TCFP) with a current market value of approximately €13 billion. 

Dassault also holds an estimated €2.9-€3 billion in proprietary cash as of the first half. 

The aerospace and defense company is valued at 10 times forward EBIT for its core aviation operations.

The brokerage left its financial forecasts largely unchanged, citing reiterated guidance of €6.5 billion in full-year sales and a stable delivery schedule. 

It estimates EBIT margins to remain steady, with earnings per share expected to increase from €17.40 in 2025 to €19.75 in 2027.

Free float stands at 27.4%, and year-to-date share performance was 34.95% as of July 25. The stock’s 52-week high and low were €330.00 and €181.40, respectively.

Among sector peers, Kepler Cheuvreux named Airbus, Indra, Lisi, Rheinmetall (ETR:RHMG), and Safran (EPA:SAF) as most preferred, while Kongsberg Gruppen and Saab were least preferred.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.