M. Stanley cuts Novo Nordisk to Underweight on ’tough path ahead’, shares slip

Published 29/09/2025, 09:34
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley cut its rating on Novo Nordisk to Underweight from Equal-weight and lowered its price target to DKr 300 from DKr 380, citing “tough path ahead” for the drugmaker amid slowing prescription trends, intensifying competition, and looming pricing pressures.

Shares in Novo Nordisk fell over 3% in U.S. premarket trading Monday.

The bank’s analysts pointed to stagnation in U.S. prescriptions for key drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, as well as a steady decline for Rybelsus. While weekly volumes for Wegovy rose earlier in the year, they have held flat for the past nine weeks, suggesting limited momentum.

“The lack of momentum in U.S. prescriptions for Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus make us cautious on the short-term growth profile,” the team led by Thibault Boutherin wrote.

Morgan Stanley now forecasts Novo’s group sales to grow about 5% in 2026, below consensus expectations of 8.5%. The analysts are 7–8% below consensus on 2027 group sales and EBIT, and warned they do not expect the stock to perform into negative earnings revisions.

The team expects guidance for next year to imply single-digit growth at the midpoint, with downside risk from a heavy near-term catalyst calendar.

These include trial results from the semaglutide Alzheimer’s program, where Morgan Stanley sees a 75% chance of failure, a Medicare Part D price announcement by November that could cut net U.S. Ozempic prices by 50%, and a head-to-head trial of CagriSema versus Eli Lilly’s Zepbound.

Competition is expected to mount further. Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro continues to gain share in diabetes, reaching 56% of the U.S. GLP-1 market.

In obesity, Lilly’s tirzepatide and upcoming orforglipron pose challenges, while compounded GLP-1s in the U.S. and generics in markets like Canada, China and Brazil threaten Novo’s international sales.

Novo’s oral Wegovy launch in 2026 may bring in $1 billion, but analysts flagged a “positioning conundrum” between protecting injectable sales and pricing competitively against Lilly’s oral rival.

At its reduced target, Novo would trade at about 11 times 2028 earnings, more in line with large European peers facing patent cliffs such as Novartis and Sanofi.

“As the window before semaglutide U.S./EU LOE narrows, we expect valuation multiples to compress,” the analysts said.

Overall, Morgan Stanley sees Novo as a relative underperformer in its coverage, warning that consensus estimates will likely face downward revisions in the coming year, especially as restructuring impacts have yet to be fully reflected in market expectations.

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