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Investing.com -- Mizuho has cut its ratings on Rivian and Texas Instruments, citing weakening electric vehicle (EV) demand and growing competitive and policy headwinds from China.
Analyst Vijay Rakesh downgraded Rivian to Underperform and slashed its price target to $10 from $14, warning that its 2026 delivery expectations appear too optimistic as U.S. EV incentives roll off.
He now assumes Rivian will deliver 60,000 units in 2026, an increase of about 40% year-on-year but still well short of the roughly 72,000 expected by consensus, noting that North American battery EV (BEV) demand is under pressure as IRA credits expire and vehicle prices remain above $70,000.
Rakesh flagged that North American EV light vehicle production is expected to be flat next year, with General Motors already recording a $1.6 billion impairment linked to lower output.
Moreover, he noted that consensus expects Rivian deliveries to grow 69% next year, a pace he describes as challenging against a backdrop of flat BEV production and high average selling prices (ASPs).
GM and Ford could cut BEV production by as much as 40% to 50% following the expiry of IRA credits, he added.
The analyst also points to Rivian’s planned R2 launch in the first half of 2026 as a key milestone but cautions that weaker demand could weigh on the ramp.
He trimmed its revenue and EPS estimates for 2025 through 2027 and said Rivian’s high ASP R1 lineup could limit volume growth even as R2 ramps.
Texas Instruments was also downgraded to Underperform, with the price target lowered to $150 from $200.
Rakesh cites a lack of near-term catalysts, elevated valuation at around 26 times earnings, and exposure to slowing auto demand and rising China risk as domestic analog suppliers gain share under “China for China” policies.
He warns of “anti-dumping tariffs” risk and estimates the chipmaker could lose three to five percentage points of China market share over the next few years, with around a quarter of its revenue tied to the region.
The analyst added that TXN currently generates around $1 billion per quarter in China revenue, while domestic suppliers are growing more than 20% annually as they target 30% market share.
Texas Instruments has limited exposure to faster-growing AI data center markets, Rakesh points out, given its lack of significant SiC or GaN business, while its core automotive and industrial segments face pressure.
While TXN appears on Nvidia’s 800V partner list, he said it still sees limited revenue benefit from AI given its product mix.
Mizuho’s revised earnings forecasts now sit 5% to 7% below consensus, reflecting lower expected revenue growth and margin strain.
The brokerage said that although lower capex in 2026 could help free cash flow, TXN still trades at a premium of more than 30% to the broader analog peer group, which limits upside.