Morgan Stanley Flags 5 European Pharma Stocks Poised for Big Catalyst Moves

Investing.com -- European pharmaceutical companies face critical regulatory decisions and clinical trial results in the coming months that could significantly impact their market performance, according to a new analysis from Morgan Stanley.

The investment bank has identified several major pharmaceutical companies with important near-term catalysts that investors should monitor closely. These events range from crucial legal developments to regulatory decisions and clinical trial readouts that could reshape company outlooks.

Bayer AG stands at a pivotal juncture as it awaits the U.S. Solicitor General’s brief in the Durnell glyphosate litigation, which could determine whether the Supreme Court hears the case. Morgan Stanley labels this a "very high" importance event, as court acceptance would mark progress toward resolving the legal issues that have depressed Bayer’s valuation. A Supreme Court decision is expected within weeks of the brief’s filing. Additionally, Bayer awaits late-stage results from OCEANIC-STROKE, testing its Factor-XI inhibitor asundexian for secondary stroke prevention—a potential €2 billion opportunity.

In a recent development, Bayer AG’s menopause drug Lynkuet received backing from European regulators for approval. Separately, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on the company to negative from stable, citing increased litigation risks.

GSK plc faces a critical FDA decision on Blenrep, its multiple myeloma treatment, by October 23. This review follows a negative advisory committee vote and an FDA request for additional data. Morgan Stanley describes this as a very high importance event that could bring meaningful downside surprise if approval is denied.

However, a favorable decision would revitalize GSK’s oncology portfolio and strengthen its pipeline momentum.

GSK plc announced plans to invest $30 billion in U.S. research and manufacturing over the next five years and entered a $500 million collaboration with Hengrui Pharma for drug development. The company also named Luke Miels as its CEO designate, effective January 2026.

Novo Nordisk A/S has two major catalysts ahead. The EVOKE trial readout for oral semaglutide in Alzheimer’s disease is expected between October and November, though Morgan Stanley assigns only a 25% probability of success.

Additionally, the U.S. Medicare price negotiation outcome for Ozempic and Wegovy, anticipated in November, could impact more than 7% of the company’s gross sales. These developments make Novo one of the most event-driven European pharma stocks in late 2025.

Novo Nordisk A/S has discontinued its cell therapy division and announced job cuts at a key U.S. manufacturing site as part of a broader restructuring. The company also indicated it plans to launch its new obesity pill through telehealth platforms after it receives regulatory approval.

Sanofi SA awaits regulatory decisions for tolebrutinib, its oral therapy for multiple sclerosis. The FDA will decide on approval for secondary progressive MS on December 28, an event Morgan Stanley labels "neutral" in risk-reward terms but potentially positive depending on labeling details.

Additional Phase 3 data in primary progressive MS later this quarter could provide modest upside. Early 2026 results for amlitelimab in atopic dermatitis will be crucial for defining the drug’s competitive positioning.

Sanofi SA has agreed to acquire UK-based vaccine developer Vicebio in a deal worth up to $1.6 billion. Additionally, the company’s experimental eczema drug amlitelimab met its primary goals in a late-stage trial.

Roche Holding AG expects Phase 3 trial results for fenebrutinib in primary progressive multiple sclerosis this quarter. Morgan Stanley indicates that showing non-inferiority to Ocrevus would strengthen Roche’s MS market position.

The company will also release Phase 3 data on giredestrant in first-line breast cancer early next year, an event with "very high" importance given its potential to expand Roche’s oncology portfolio.

Roche Holding AG reported mixed results from late-stage trials for its experimental drug astegolimab, which is being developed to treat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

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