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Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has upgraded Munich Re (ETR:MUVGn) to "overweight" from "neutral" and raised its December 2026 price target to €650 from €530, citing expectations of improved return on equity (ROE), higher capital returns, and a more diversified earnings mix, in a note dated Wednesday.
The brokerage expects the upcoming strategic plan, to be unveiled on December 11, 2025, to target a 16–18% ROE, up from the prior 14–16% under Ambition 2025.
Munich Re ended Q1 2025 with a Solvency II ratio of 285%, significantly above its 175–220% target range, implying over €12 billion in surplus capital.
J.P. Morgan projects this capital will be returned through share buybacks, which are forecast to increase from €2.5 billion in 2025 to €4 billion by 2028.
This would lift total payout ratios to 100% and capital return yields from 7.5% in 2025 to 9.5% in 2027, surpassing the sector average of about 7%.
The earnings profile is also expected to shift away from P&C reinsurance. Its share of group operating profit is forecast to decline from 53% in 2024 to 45% by 2028.
Operating earnings outside of P&C underwriting could reach €5 billion by 2027, driven by life reinsurance, Global Specialty Insurance (GSI), and ERGO International.
Munich Re’s acquisition of NEXT Insurance, which closed July 1, is expected to further support medium-term earnings.
NEXT wrote $548 million in premiums in 2024 and targets profitability before delivering mid-triple-digit million earnings beyond 2028.
While reinsurance pricing is softening, property catastrophe rates fell by 7% in January 2025, the brokerage views this as manageable due to Munich Re’s earnings diversification.
The group’s combined ratio for primary P&C insurance is projected to improve from 93.6% in 2024 to 89.3% by 2027, while reinsurance P&C ratios are expected to normalize from 77.3% in 2024 to 81.4% in 2027.
Earnings per share are forecast to rise from €47.03 in 2025 to €56.22 by 2027, with dividends per share increasing from €22.00 to €25.42 over the same period.
The dividend yield is projected to grow from 4% to 4.7%. Book value per share is expected to reach €298.4 by 2027.
The stock trades at a 7% discount to the sector on forward P/E, versus a 10-year average premium of 1%.