Gold prices steady, holding sharp gains in wake of soft U.S. jobs data
Investing.com -- Shares of Neste (HEL:NES1V) fell by 1% today following the release of monthly Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) generation data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which indicated that there was no import of Renewable Diesel (RD) into the United States for the second consecutive month.
The EPA data showed a significant decrease in total D4 RIN generation, down 23% month-on-month and 50% year-on-year. The EPA’s findings are in contrast to Neste’s previous statements during their recent Capital Markets Day, where the company suggested that it could continue to export RD from its Singapore facilities to California.
In 2024, Neste reported selling 1.8 million tonnes of RD in North America, which accounted for 49% of their total sales. The lack of RD imports into the U.S. as indicated by the EPA could have substantial implications for Neste’s sales volumes and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).
If this trend persists and is confirmed, analysts see a potential 10% downside to the consensus sales volumes, which are projected at 4.3 million tonnes in 2025 and 1 million tonnes for the first quarter. This could translate to approximately a 15% downside in RD EBITDA, or 8-9% at the group level.
Neste is scheduled to report its first-quarter results on March 29th, which will provide a clearer picture of the company’s performance and how these trends may be affecting their financials.
Analysts from Jefferies commented on the situation, noting the tough choices facing Neste: "Neste will also face the difficult decision of sending more volumes to Europe, negatively impacting European margins, or significantly reducing Singapore utilization."
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.