OCI downgraded to Ba3 by Moody’s as business profile shrinks

Published 28/08/2025, 15:40
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Investing.com -- Moody’s Ratings has downgraded OCI N.V.’s long-term corporate family rating to Ba3 from Ba2 and changed its outlook to negative, the rating agency announced Thursday.

The downgrade reflects OCI’s smaller and less diversified business profile following a series of asset sales, along with the company’s decision to allocate additional capital to shareholder returns instead of business reinvestment.

Moody’s cited uncertainty around performance improvements at OCI Nitrogen BV (OCIN) and the incomplete construction of a new clean ammonia plant as reasons for the negative outlook.

OCI recently completed the sale of its Methanol operations and retired its $600 million 2033 bonds. The company plans to pay a $700 million dividend in September and up to $300 million in dividends in 2026.

These actions will leave OCI with reduced capital capacity and only one operating asset, OCI Nitrogen BV, which has reported negative EBITDA over the past two years. However, Moody’s noted that OCIN has begun generating positive EBITDA following scheduled plant maintenance in the first half of 2025.

After the bond repayment and upcoming shareholder distribution, Moody’s estimates OCI will have approximately $300-$400 million in cash by the end of 2025. The company still needs to spend around $250 million to complete its Clean Ammonia Project before transferring the facility to Woodside Energy Group Ltd, after which it expects to receive $470 million in deferred consideration.

Over the next 12-18 months, Moody’s projects that OCI could approach $125 million in EBITDA on a run-rate basis, potentially becoming free cash flow positive.

The rating agency described OCI’s liquidity as "very good," noting its substantial cash balances and full availability on its $600 million revolving credit facility. The company also holds a 13% stake in Methanex Corporation valued at approximately $350 million and has up to $362 million in deferred consideration receivable from its Fertiglobe plc disposal.

Moody’s indicated that a rating upgrade is unlikely given OCI’s single-plant operations and lack of strategic direction.

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