Potential US bond market meltdown by mid-2025, warns deVere Group CEO

Published 07/02/2025, 13:26
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Investing.com -- The CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest financial advisory and asset management organizations, has raised concerns about a potential bond market meltdown in the United States by mid-2025. The warning was issued by Nigel Green during a client webinar on Friday, following a panel discussion about President Donald Trump’s proposed $9.5 trillion tax cuts.

These tax cuts, which the President has pledged to implement, are causing apprehensions about a potential fiscal crisis in the US due to their enormous scale. The President’s apparent interest in tariffs is seen as a way to finance these cuts. However, even with a 20% tariff on all imports and a massive 60% on Chinese goods, it would only generate $4.5 trillion, which is less than half the required amount.

According to Green, this growing fiscal deficit is increasing the budget deficit of the world’s largest economy. He warned that the bond markets are closely observing the situation, and there is a real risk of a significant sell-off of US Treasuries if investors become nervous. This could potentially lead to a situation similar to the UK’s Liz Truss crisis, but on a much larger and more damaging scale.

As the deficit continues to grow, bond investors might demand significantly higher yields to offset the risk, which could lead to increased borrowing costs. If the Federal Reserve is compelled to raise rates again to stabilize the situation, it could have a negative impact on businesses, homeowners, and financial markets.

Green further warned that the President’s proposed tax cuts, without a feasible funding mechanism, could lead to a full-blown fiscal crisis. A potential revolt in the bond market would not only affect the US but could also cause global instability. This situation is reminiscent of the UK’s financial crisis in 2022 under the leadership of former Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose aggressive tax cuts without a credible fiscal backing led to a severe bond market backlash.

The deVere Group is advising investors to brace for increased market volatility. Green emphasized the importance of defensive assets, strategic diversification, and hedging strategies. He ended his remarks by stating that if the bond market loses confidence in US fiscal credibility, the consequences will be historic.

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