Pro Research: Wall Street eyes Coinbase amid market shifts

EditorRachael Rajan
Published 27/11/2023, 17:58
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In the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrency, Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Global, Inc. (EXCHANGE:COIN) stands out as a prominent player. As a financial platform specializing in cryptocurrency services, including trading and storage, Coinbase has been the subject of recent scrutiny from various financial analysts. This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive deep-dive into the company's current state, its position in the market, and future prospects.

Company Overview

Coinbase operates as a platform for buying, selling, transferring, and storing digital currency. It has become a household name in the crypto exchange industry, catering to both retail and institutional clients. The company's revenue and profitability are heavily influenced by retail engagement, which has been a significant component of its business model.

Market Performance and Competitive Landscape

Coinbase's stock has seen fluctuations in recent times, with a noted decline in retail engagement despite a rise in Bitcoin prices. However, the company's share of retail trading volumes has stabilized slightly in the third quarter, showing resilience in a competitive landscape with rivals such as HOOD (NASDAQ:HOOD).

Analysts have observed that Coinbase's pricing strategy may pose sustainability challenges for long-term growth. The company's reliance on transaction fees as a primary revenue stream has been highlighted as a potential risk, especially in a market that is becoming increasingly regulated.

Financial Health and Projections

Coinbase has demonstrated improved cost management, which has led to better cost controls and an increase in revenue and EBITDA estimates for the upcoming years. Revenue estimates for 2023 and 2024 have been adjusted to $2,662E million and $2,437E million, respectively, while EBITDA projections show $634E million for 2023 and $486E million for 2024.

Regulatory Environment

The regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency exchanges is complex and evolving. Recent actions against industry players like Binance and Kraken have not significantly altered Coinbase's competitive position, but regulatory pressures remain a concern. The company has been proactive in addressing increased reporting requirements and advocating for industry clarity.

Future Outlook and Product Segments

Coinbase's prospects include potential catalysts such as SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024. The company is also launching derivatives products to retail and institutional investors, which could drive upside to estimates given that derivatives represent a significant portion of global crypto trading volumes.

The company continues to expand internationally, with operations in Brazil, Singapore, Canada, and advancements in crypto derivatives markets. These initiatives, along with efficient expense management and revenue diversification, provide a bullish perspective for the company's long-term growth.

SWOT Analysis


  • Leading position in the cryptocurrency exchange market.
  • Improved cost controls and revenue diversification.
  • International expansion and product development initiatives.


  • Decline in retail engagement and trading volumes.
  • Heavy reliance on transaction fees for revenue.


  • Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and other regulatory catalysts.
  • Expansion of derivatives products and services.


  • Regulatory uncertainty and potential enforcement actions.
  • Competitive pressures in the cryptocurrency exchange industry.

Analysts Targets

  • Mizuho Securities USA LLC: Underperform rating with a price target of $31.00 (Friday, November 10, 2023).
  • Barclays Capital Inc.: Underweight rating with a price target of $67.00 (Friday, November 24, 2023).
  • H.C. Wainwright & Co.: Buy rating with a price target of $115.00 (Monday, November 06, 2023).
  • JMP Securities: Market Outperform rating with a price target of $107.00 (Thursday, September 14, 2023).

In conclusion, the analysis spans from September to November 2023, providing a snapshot of Coinbase's position in the market and its potential trajectory. With a mix of challenges and opportunities ahead, the company remains a key entity to watch in the cryptocurrency space.

InvestingPro Insights

Coinbase Global , Inc. (EXCHANGE:COIN) has been navigating a turbulent crypto market with notable agility. Current InvestingPro data and insights offer a mixed picture of the company's performance and outlook.

InvestingPro Data shows a market capitalization of $27.14 billion, reflecting the company's significant presence in the cryptocurrency exchange space. Despite a challenging environment, Coinbase has managed to maintain a substantial valuation. The company's Price to Book ratio stands at 4.63 as of the last twelve months ending Q3 2023, indicating a premium valuation compared to book value, which may suggest investor confidence in the company's assets and future growth.

A sharp uptick in the stock price is evident, with a 1 Month Price Total Return of 63.24% and a 6 Month Price Total Return of 102.99%, signaling strong recent performance. This rally could be associated with specific market events or a shift in investor sentiment towards Coinbase.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that three analysts have recently revised their earnings projections upward for the upcoming period, suggesting that there may be positive developments or expectations for the company's financials. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the stock is in overbought territory, which could imply that a pullback might be on the horizon due to the recent rapid increase in the stock price.

For readers interested in a deeper analysis of Coinbase, InvestingPro offers additional insights. There are currently 13 InvestingPro Tips available for Coinbase on the InvestingPro platform, which can provide further guidance on the stock's performance and outlook.

It's worth noting that the InvestingPro subscription is now available at a special Cyber Monday sale price, offering a discount of up to 55%. This promotion provides an excellent opportunity for investors to access valuable insights at a reduced cost.

In summary, while Coinbase faces challenges such as potential non-profitability this year and a volatile stock price, recent positive price movements and analyst revisions suggest that there may be emerging opportunities for the company in the near future.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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