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Investing.com -- RBC Capital Markets downgraded Atlas Energy Solutions to “sector perform” from “outperform,” citing weaker sand demand in the Permian Basin and risks to the company’s dividend. The brokerage cut its price target to $13 from $16.
Analysts at RBC said the Permian sand market “remains relatively soft,” with 2026 demand projected at about 59 million tons versus 64 million in 2025.
Brokerage cut its 2026 sales volume forecast for Atlas by 2 million tons to 23 million and expects prices to stay between $15 and $20 a ton despite some capacity reductions across the industry.
RBC said lower trucking rates have kept margins from expanding at Atlas’s Dune Express logistics system, which has ramped to about 1.5 million tons a quarter.
Gross margins in logistics are seen improving only modestly to 21% in 2026 from 17% in 2024, below the firm’s earlier expectations.
The analysts warned of a “relatively high likelihood” of a dividend cut before the end of 2025, noting Atlas would need about $300 million in annual EBITDA to sustain its current payout.
RBC’s forecast now sits slightly below that threshold after lowering 2026 EBITDA estimates by 17% to $300 million.
While Atlas’s Moser Energy Systems unit remains a bright spot, with 19% revenue growth expected in the second half of 2026, RBC said capital needs for that business compete with dividend funding.
The brokerage’s revised price target implies a 12-month return of about 21%, which it said is in line with its “sector perform” peers.