TSX runs higher on rate cut expectations
Investing.com -- The current S&P 500 earnings estimates might not fully account for the potential risks associated with the tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump, Citi strategists said in a note.
While a robust fourth-quarter performance that set a positive tone for 2025, the strategists caution that the consensus estimates may not have embedded the impacts of tariff policies.
The S&P 500 entered 2025 with solid fundamental backing after an impressive fourth-quarter earnings season. However, Citi anticipates some downward revisions to the consensus 2025 earnings estimates, traditionally bottoming out in mid-April.
The resilience of the current year’s estimates has been notable, yet Citi suggests a possible decline to the $265-$268 range before ending the year near their $270 target.
“Tariff headlines persist, and we are approaching key implementation dates,” strategists said.
“All told, we suspect most analysts, including us, are in a wait and see mode. That is, we can do sensitivity analysis, but likely require more granularity before building policy effects into base case assumptions.”
While acknowledging the presence of risks such as enduring tariffs, a slowing macroeconomic environment, and negative fiscal impacts, Citi stresses the importance of contextualizing these against the strong current fundamentals.
Historical data suggests that a positive earnings surprise, like that of the fourth quarter, often leads to continued performance in subsequent quarters.
“While risks remain, the 4Q beat and lowered ’25 expectations may have de-risked the fundamental growth hurdle this year. While we remain comfortable in our base case, we are still on the lookout for evidence of where we could be wrong,” strategists continued.
The bank also provided a broader perspective by comparing current consensus estimates with historical sales, EBIT, and earnings per share (EPS) growth rates. They find the top-line growth expectation of 4.5% to be reasonable, considering the backdrop of 5% nominal GDP growth.
Furthermore, with consensus estimates of 11% EPS growth and 13% EBIT growth, Citi is reassured that these projections “are not reliant on falling interest rates and or lower effective tax rates this year.”