Stifel expects strong print and guide from Microsoft, lifts stock target

Published 28/07/2025, 15:40

Investing.com -- Stifel raised its price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares to $550 from $500, citing improving enterprise IT spending, accelerating Azure growth, and strong generative AI demand ahead of the company’s upcoming results.

“We believe healthy results from GCP and NOW last week and our strong checks point to a Q/Q acceleration in the enterprise spending environment,” Stifel analysts wrote. They added that this, combined with “non-AI GTM execution improvements and robust genAI demand, should enable Azure to post ~100-200bps of upside vs. 34-35% Y/Y-CC guidance.”

Looking ahead, Stifel expects commentary on fiscal 2026 capital expenditures could surprise to the upside, with Microsoft potentially guiding to “~50% YoY increase,” exceeding current street estimates of $100 billion.

“We also expect FY26 capex commentary could likely exceed our/street estimates of ~$110B/$100B, respectively, echoing Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) commentary during earnings,” the firm said.

Despite a potential squeeze on gross margins, Stifel remains optimistic on profitability. 

“Management’s ability to manage OPEX remains robust,” analysts noted, pointing to “recent layoffs and MSFT’s focus on efficiency.” 

They added, “We expect this trend to continue and offset gross-margin compression.”

As a result, the firm believes that Microsoft can continue to deliver strong profit growth. 

“That we believe should enable Microsoft to post continued double-digit operating income growth in FY26/beyond,” Stifel concluded.

The bullish view comes as Azure’s growth is expected to remain in the “mid-30% range in coming quarters,” supported by both structural AI tailwinds and improved go-to-market execution.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.