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Investing.com -- The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in March, but there may be hope for a rebound in April, traditionally the second-best month for the index, according to the Stock Traders Almanac.
They state that historically, April has seen strong performance, with gains in the S&P 500 averaging 63% of the time when Q1 was down, said the Almanac.
While March has been a volatile month, particularly towards its end, April has a reputation for a positive start to the month.
The Almanac points out that "April is the final month of the ’Best Six Months’" for the DJIA and S&P 500, which could help support a bounce-back in the market.
They believe the start of April could be crucial, as the S&P 500 enters a period often marked by seasonal strength.
However, they caution that the broader economic environment could dampen sentiment.
"There is a high degree of uncertainty on Wall Street,” said the firm, noting tariff negotiations, new government policies, and slowing growth.
The S&P 500’s drop in the first quarter of 2025 is said to suggest that risks remain, particularly following post-election years, which have historically been weak for the markets.
The Stock Traders Almanac also warned that while April has historically been favorable, the weakness from Q1 could persist.
A key factor will be whether the market can sustain momentum, as "the market will be hard-pressed to make any significant headway" without a significant rally in April.
If the market fails to rally, it may signal the dominance of other market forces, said the Almanac.