UBS resumes coverage of Elastic with Buy on revenue upside potential, GenAI boost

Published 13/08/2025, 17:42
© Kfir Sivan, Palo Alto Networks PR

Investing.com -- UBS resumed coverage of search software maker Elastic NV with a Buy rating, citing a more favorable sales outlook and medium-term growth potential from generative artificial intelligence.

The brokerage set a $95 price target, valuing the company at about 5.5 times estimated 2026 revenue, and said recent industry checks point to stable or slightly improving demand.

UBS expects revenue to grow 13% in fiscal 2026 and 2027, above the company’s guidance for about 12% growth, with upside to 15-16% possible.

UBS said management’s 2026 guidance appears conservative, as some anticipated headwinds, such as weakness in the U.S. public sector, have not spread to other markets. Free cash flow forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 4% and 6% above Wall Street’s consensus, it added.

The firm said large customers are preparing to expand spending on generative AI search tools, which could lift search revenue by 10-20% over several years, translating into a roughly two-percentage-point boost to total revenue growth.

It noted competition in “vector search” databases from MongoDB, Couchbase, Postgres and private vendors such as Pinecone, though Elastic could gain as use cases grow more complex.

Feedback on Elastic’s observability products, used for monitoring and application performance, was positive, while security offerings faced stronger competition from rivals such as CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. UBS also said the company’s wins against Splunk were smaller than expected.

UBS views competition as the main risk but said it is largely reflected in the stock’s current valuation of about four times estimated 2026 revenue.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.