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On Tuesday, 13 May 2025, Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) participated in the Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum, where the company outlined its strategic shifts and challenges. CEO Sean Connolly emphasized Conagra’s transformation into a branded pure-play focused on North America, while CFO David Marburger discussed financial strategies amid economic uncertainties. The company is navigating inflation and tariffs, balancing margin protection with volume growth, and focusing on innovation in its frozen and snacking segments.
Key Takeaways
- Conagra has transformed into a branded pure-play focused on North America.
- Inflation and tariffs are impacting costs, with strategies in place to mitigate these effects.
- The company is focused on innovation in frozen foods and permissible snacking.
- Conagra has reduced debt by $500 million over the past year.
- The company is cautiously optimistic about navigating current economic challenges.
Financial Results
Conagra is experiencing inflation at 4% for the fiscal year, up from an initial 3% estimate. The company has successfully reduced debt by $500 million in the last twelve months and continues to focus on generating free cash flow to pay dividends and further reduce debt. Productivity improvements are targeted at 4% of the cost of goods sold, with progress being made towards this goal.
Tariffs on tinplate and aluminum have imposed a 25% cost impact. Conagra is mitigating these costs through supplier negotiations, alternative sourcing, and potential price increases.
Operational Updates
Frozen Segment:
- Positive volume growth with a focus on innovation in quality, wellness, and convenience.
- Supply chain issues in frozen vegetables and chicken are being addressed, with recovery expected by the end of fiscal year 2026’s first quarter.
Snacking Segment:
- Focus on permissible snacking with strong market shares in meat snacks, popcorn, and seeds.
- Recent acquisition of the "Fatty" meat stick brand, expanding the portfolio with Slim Jim, Duke’s, and Penrose.
Future Outlook
Conagra is prioritizing volume growth to enhance productivity and optimize trade merchandising investments. While supply chain issues will impact the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company expects a quick return to normalcy. Conagra is monitoring inflation and prepared to adjust prices if necessary.
The company is taking a balanced approach to capital allocation, focusing on debt reduction, strategic acquisitions, and potential divestitures of non-strategic assets.
Q&A Highlights
- Promotional strategies are shifting from deep discounts to quality merchandising.
- The competitive environment remains rational, with a focus on improving volume trends.
- Consumer behavior shows broad-based conservatism due to economic uncertainty.
For a detailed understanding, readers are encouraged to refer to the full transcript.
Full transcript - Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum:
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Good morning. I’m Leah Jordan. I’m the packaged food and food retail analyst here at Goldman, and it is my pleasure to introduce the management team of Conagra Brands. We have Sean Connolly, president and chief executive officer and David Marburger, chief financial officer. Thank you both for joining us today.
For a quick refresher, Conagra is one of the largest packaged food companies in The US with a broad portfolio across frozen snacks and shelf stable products, serving customers across retail, food service, and international markets. And it owns popular brands like Marie Callender’s, Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, and Slim Jim. So with that, I’ll get into our chat. I think to start us off, Sean, you have been CEO of Conagra for about ten years. There’s been quite an evolution of the portfolio over that time.
How do you view Conagra’s portfolio today? What were the key steps along the way that make you feel like it’s positioned well for the longer term today? And where do you see opportunities for further refinement from here?
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: Alright. Well, good morning, everybody. Thank you for having us. We’re really glad to be here today. And, obviously, these are dynamic times, so I’m sure we’re gonna hit on topics.
In terms of our journey, ten years ago, things weren’t working. And we were a diversified global holding company, and we set out to change what the company fundamentally was and really shift the company to become a branded pure play anchored in North America. And over the course of the last eight, nine years, that’s the exactly the transformation we’ve done. And the way we did that is a combination of investing in the businesses we own to modernize them. So if you look across the portfolio of brands that we own today, virtually every brand we have has been dramatically modernized and and shows up very differently in the marketplace.
We’ve acquired new businesses that are additive to the portfolio we already had, and we divested businesses that either would create more value on their own, like the Lamb Weston IPO or other divestitures of businesses that were just drags on our growth and on our margins. So that’s a transformation that we set out to do. We set out to put some operating margin on the business and build capabilities that would carry us into the future like innovation, and we’ve done that. So today, what you have is a portfolio that has the vast majority of its organic net sales in our retail business anchored in frozen and permissible snacking. About two thirds of our portfolio retail sales are in those two categories.
That’s a big change versus where we were years ago, and that’s important because those are growth businesses for us. So frozen is a business that we like to say it’s just a temperature state. If you can dream it, we can freeze it, which is very different from the mindset the industry had on frozen thirty, forty years ago. Our snacks business is all about permissibility and healthy snacking. So we’ve been the beneficiary of some of the shifts that you’ve seen in the snacking industry more recently, and we’ve built scale in critical categories like meat sticks, which is the fastest one of the fastest growing categories in all food.
So that’s just a little bit of color on on the transformation we’ve led, and happy to get into any pieces of that.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Okay. Great. Yeah. I think that sets us up well today. But but before we dig in a little bit more to your brands, would love to just take a a step back and talk about the consumer just given the broad range of your portfolio.
Obviously, you said it’s a dynamic macro environment. But what trends are you seeing across brands that skew lower income versus upper income? And have you noticed any meaningful shifts across channels or eating more at home?
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: Sure. Well, it’s been challenging times for the last few years because we had the inflation super cycle where we’ve seen cumulatively just an epic level of inflation, which then led to inflation justified pricing in the industry, and that really stretched the consumer. Now what we’ve got is a whole new level of uncertainty in the last several months that has emerged. And you know, when we think about our consumer, we sell to consumers in every aisle in the grocery store. And the the simple way I think about it is uncertainty leads to conservatism.
That’s in the consumer. That is in retail customers. It’s also in investors. You know? It’s it’s fairly predictable.
Granted, it’s different from what we saw two summers ago where you saw household savings and and things like that, stimulus money coming down, but people were revenge spending, they were going out and buying Taylor Swift and Beyonce ticket at any price. That was atypical. What we’re seeing now is not atypical. When there is uncertainty, consumers of all income groups tend to be more conservative, and that’s what we’re seeing right now. It it obviously will correlate most closely with lower income consumers who have the least play in their household balance sheets, but I would describe the environment we’re seeing right now as one of broad based conservatism across consumers, customers, and even investors.
And that will persist, I think, until we see green shoots. So every day, we wake up and you know, we put on squawk box and we see, are there any green shoots emerging today? Today, we’ve got some, and you see the market move around, and there there’s probably some correlation between where the consumer psyche is and even the way we see the market move day to day.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: And that’s very helpful. And I think as the consumer is being conservative, I think a lot of our conversations sit around promotional activity, and you guys have been doing less than pre COVID levels. I guess to what risk is there to normalize from there? You know, why are they more efficient today? Or just how are you thinking about your promotional strategy in the current environment?
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: Yeah. To to understand that for our company specifically, you have to go back to pre ten years ago when we were a company that was a diversified holding company. We were not investing in innovation. We were not investing in brand building. And the one tool we had to move volume were deep discount deals.
And when Dave and I joined the company, we said that’s the end of that era. And so we’ve worked very hard to drain the swamp, so to speak, build our brands in a quality way through innovation, and then do merchandising that is high quality, getting our great products in people’s mouths because if we can get trial, we’re confident we can get repeat purchase. So we’ve invested in quality promotion, particularly in the last year when we declared we have to get back to volume growth because long term volume declines are not good for anybody. And so we surgically invested, starting with our frozen single serve meals business, in quality merchandising and saw tremendous responsiveness. And by the time we got to the end of Q2, we were back growing volumes again.
But if you look at the absolute level of promotion that we’ve had, it is on par with where we were pre COVID, below our peers with a depth of discount that is below our peers. So we’re not big into deep discount merchandising to move volume, but we’re not opposed to investing in high quality trial vehicles in order to get that that consumer consumption because we’re very confident we can get repeat.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Great. That’s very helpful. Thank you. And I think as we’re talking about promotions, you know, maybe at a high level, if you could just comment on the competitive environment that you’re seeing today, how you think about your price gaps, and maybe what you’re seeing both from private label and smaller brands.
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: Well, if you read everybody’s quarterly reports, everybody for the last year has been declaring they want to see better trends on volume. So improving volume trends in the food industry, particularly the near end food peers that we have with large center store businesses, you had volume declines kind of peak at that minus seven, minus eight, which is actually not that bad in the context of cumulative pricing that exceeded 30%, but it doesn’t make anybody feel good. So we and others said, let’s let’s try to get that volume moving back to zero and then in a positive territory. We were able to do that because our categories, like frozen meals, were very responsive to investment because people are hooked on convenience, which our our products offer. But I would say, in general, everybody’s been focused on volume.
That has led a merchandising level that for the industry was below COVID for a couple of years to get back to COVID levels, but it hasn’t become irrational beyond that. So I would say the environment in general is very rational. Think everybody from retailers to manufacturers wants to see the consumer get back to their typical behavior and wants to see volumes get robust again. Phrase that we’ve all been chasing for a couple years now is on algo. When are you companies gonna get food companies gonna get back on algo?
And every time we think we’re getting close, a new curveball comes our way. But, you know, the new one that we’ve dealt with in the last month or so has been tariffs and, obviously, the the persistent inflation, and that’s something that I think you’ll see companies get more clarity on over the course of the summer.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Yes. Tariffs. That’s been one of the the biggest questions we’ve had. Maybe we’ll just jump there since you opened the door because I know a lot of investors are curious about that. Obviously, it remains a very fluid environment.
Obviously, we continue to have update announcements this week, and I know it will continue to evolve. But could you provide more color on how your input costs are exposed? What’s the potential impact and any mitigation opportunities you see?
David Marburger, Chief Financial Officer, Conagra Brands: Yes. So we talked about in our third quarter earnings. The two areas that were impacted the most are tinplate and aluminum and the China tariffs, and so the biggest being tinplate and aluminum. We we manu all of our US sales are manufactured at plants we have in The United States, but we can’t get all of our materials from The US because there’s there’s no supply. So tinplate aluminum is the biggest one.
The the tariffs are at 25%. So the process we go through, which most companies go through this, you have a task force, which I lead, where we go through with our procurement teams and a cross functional and say, okay. What’s the gross exposure from this? Then just go through mitigation. Okay.
How much of this can we negotiate with our suppliers? So we have to split the tariff cost. Then are there any alternative supplier arrangements where we can go? In this case, there’s not a lot, but we look at anything we can do. Then we look at our core productivity programs and say, alright.
How can we accelerate those to offset more of the cost? And then depending on where we land, the the next lever would be targeted price increases that we would take. So we’re going through that process now. There’s really no more to discuss there. What I would say is to the extent that if you look at China, we had good news yesterday, obviously, with tariffs coming down, To the extent, though, that the estimated costs are changing, it makes it very difficult if you ultimately conclude that you wanna talk to a customer about a targeted price increase.
If the cost is changing, you can’t really have that conversation. And so it’s just resulted in this delay where a lot of companies are kind of waiting to see, okay, we’re mitigating. But ultimately, if you can’t offset most of the costs, you have to take some pricing. And so that’s where we are. We have our q four earnings call in July, and we’ll give our guidance for fiscal twenty twenty six, and we’ll give more color on where we are at that time.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Sounds great. That’s very helpful. Thank you. I think sticking with the cost side of things, so outside of tariffs, you’ve also noticed noted increasing cost pressure across various commodities of your input costs. I guess, what are you seeing in terms of your inflationary input costs today?
How much is locked in at this point? And how do you think about your ability to pass through pricing in the current environment?
David Marburger, Chief Financial Officer, Conagra Brands: So we guided for the end of our fiscal year, which ends May. Our our inflation is 4%. That’s our estimate. That was up from our original expectation of 3%. So we’ve seen an acceleration in inflation versus where we expected it at the beginning of the fiscal year.
It’s been sticky. Inflation has been sticky. We our basket of goods, we’re we’re a little bit more weighted to animal protein, so beef, chicken. And and as you’ve seen in the last forty, forty five days, the fresh chicken markets have gone up 40%. So we’re more spot when it comes to that, so we are seeing some of that now, and that will continue, but we’ll see where that market goes.
So we’re pretty much locked in at this point for fiscal twenty five, but we’re we’re in the process now of of just forecasting what we think our inflation is going to be, you know, before and after tariffs for fiscal twenty six. As as Sean said, it’s extremely dynamic. There’s a lot of changes. And so but we have a very agile procurement group, so we’re constantly looking at opportunities to try to try to offset these costs.
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: But I I think if you step back from it, this is precisely the needle the industry is trying to thread, which is if it’s an inflationary environment, and then on top of that, you layer on new tariffs, you’ve got a responsibility to protect margins. At the same time, investors and and management teams have said it’s important to have volume growth because keeping the relationship between the consumer and brands is in the best interest of long term brand strength and the future cash flows of those businesses. So the question, I think, is if the environment remains inflationary, if tariffs stick and there is a cause for inflation justified pricing, how does that coexist with the notion of surgically investing in merchandising to get volumes back to growth? Because when you take pricing, you trigger a new round of elasticity. And that elasticity, consumers have to adjust to the new pricing.
And then if you don’t like the response you see, you’ll see manufacturers invest back trade, which basically unwinds some of the pricing. So this is one of the challenges that makes it difficult for companies to provide helpful guidance to investors right now is is, you know, how will the dust settle? And will will companies need to take inflation justified pricing and deal with new elasticity effects? Or is that going to become more manageable and they can surgically and efficiently invest in some quality merchandising to get volumes back to growth? That is the needle that has to be thread, and that is, I think, why you see even if you look at the scanner data today, you’ll see some companies whose pricing is up materially.
We’ll take a look at their volumes, down materially. You’ll see other companies that haven’t taken pricing taken pricing recently, and their volumes are much stronger. So that is the question. For us, we declared a year, year and a half ago that at the end of the day, you have to have that strong relationship with the consumer. Volumes need to be strong.
But we’ve also worked very hard to get our margins operating margins where they are today. So that is that’s going to be the challenge for management teams in this current environment.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Yes. Absolutely. Great color. Thank you. So I wanted to go back to your two main segments, frozen and snacking.
Maybe we’ll start with frozen. You’re the market leader in the category. You spoke about the return to volume growth, and that remains positive there. What trends are you seeing in this segment? And how do you view the long term opportunity in the category?
And do you still think there’s any education that needs to happen for the consumer to adopt it? Absolutely.
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: Yes. On the last question, if you go back to when I was a little kid, frozen dinners were these things in metal trays and, you know, not particularly high quality, and it was almost emergency food. But at the end of the day, it is just a temperature state. So if you look at other countries, France is a good example, they have built really impressive super high quality frozen businesses that basically gives you a chef quality food that is kept in your freezer on call for you, ready when you want it. And you don’t have to buy it in advance like today some of today’s meal kits.
And if you decide to go out to watch Monday Night Football and you don’t eat it, you find it three days later and you realize I’ve gotta throw it out. I’ve wasted all this money. So the the notion that frozen food is the highest quality fresh food you can buy that is flash frozen at the peak of ripeness is is a message that we continue to convey in our marketing. And as younger consumers who have always been the biggest age cohort of frozen foods come to appreciate that, but also appreciate the tremendous value associated with it because it doesn’t spoil, it stays in your freezer ready until you are, it really becomes the ultimate value proposition for today’s shoppers. It’s great quality, great nutrition, great convenience, great taste, but most importantly, at a great value.
And so that’s a message that we can drive across our entire frozen portfolio. We have become the largest frozen food company in the world. We were not, when we started this journey ten years ago, we weren’t even the largest frozen meals company in The United States. We built that through a combination of organic innovation and acquisition. And even, you know, to this day, every year, our innovation agenda is more aggressive than the year before.
And it’s all about premium quality, premium wellness, premium convenience at a great value. And in an environment where you see macro challenges where people are really trying to be becoming discerning, stretching their household balance sheet, one of the trade offs that we have to deal with most frequently is how much of the consumer dollar gets spent eating away from home versus at home. And you tend to see when you have a stressed consumer, there is a trade down first within food service from white tablecloth to fast casual to to QSR, then into at home eating. And we tend to be the beneficiaries of that shift because we offer products that are very similar to fast casual but at a better value proposition. And so our innovation agenda is designed to take advantage of that and especially generate trial among younger consumers because we know that once we get trial, we get repeat, and we know when those younger consumers age and they have get married and then have kids, the per capita consumption per home of frozen food goes up and up and up.
And if you step back and look at the the compound annual growth rate of frozen meals over the last forty years, it’s 4%. It’s among the highest growing food categories that you can find, and that’s only gotten better in the last five to seven years as the quality of the products offered in this temperature state has improved pretty dramatically.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Yeah. That’s great color. Thank you. Maybe just switching to snacking. The category broadly across the industry has been pretty soft, but as you noted earlier, your trends have been better than that.
Maybe you could talk about the trends that you’re seeing and why you think that your portfolio is resonating in the current environment.
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: We made a decision a number of years ago not to be a chip and pretzel company. We don’t have a DSD, direct store delivery business. We don’t wanna compete with those who do. We wanted to snacks is a vast, vast arena, always has been. It’s an $80,000,000,000 plus space in The US.
And we’ve always said we wanna compete in spaces that can be delivered through the warehouse, that offer unique benefits and, frankly, permissible snacking. Snacking that not only satisfies your craving, but when you eat it, you feel like you’re actually doing something good for yourself. So we’ve we’ve focused our business on meat snacks, popcorn, seeds, and things like that. Our businesses have been incredibly growthful and incredibly profitable, and we have industry leading market shares in all of them. So we’ve kind of bucked the trend that you see more recently, and we even made an acquisition recently of the fatty, which is our new meat stick, which is anything but a skinny meat stick.
It is a it is a quality eating experience that will satisfy, your protein need and your hunger, so I encourage you to try it. It’s even good for breakfast.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: No. That’s great. Obviously, permissible snacking, we’ve seen the trend. I think other companies are seeing it as well. I mean, we’ve seen them lean in with innovation.
They’ve been buying up brands too. So it does seem that the competitive environment might be increasing for these categories. So how do you view your ability to defend share here and especially for categories like meat snacks and popcorn?
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: So let’s take meat snacks as an example. If The US salty snack category is 80,000,000,000, just for example, and meat snacks as a category starts tiny and then hits a tipping point and becomes huge, what’s the first thing that happens to a category when it goes from being small to being huge? Retailers add more space and more varieties appear. So when you think of large categories over the course of our lifetimes that have become massive, like cereal, yogurt, soup, things like that, you see a tremendous amount of variety. You see a tremendous amount of linear footage.
That’s what happens when cookies, when categories become big, lots of brands. Meat sticks, historically, was a very narrow category. We were there with very few other players. Meat sticks now is exploding. And the reason it’s exploding is because the target audience is no longer just a 17 year old boy.
Now people of all ages, of both genders are buying meat sticks because it’s an unbelievably efficient, portable way to get protein, satisfy your hunger, avoid sugar, avoid carbs. And so you’ve got this influx of all these consumers that were accounting for this $80,000,000,000 space that are now looking at this category with fresh eyes saying, you know what? I wanna play around here, but I want a brand that fits me. And when that happens, it’s a natural evolution for a category to add additional brands. We wanna participate in that, which is why we own more than just Slim Jim in our meat stick portfolio.
We own Duke’s, which is a shorty sausage. We own Fatty, and we own Penrose, which is a whole another business that sells in the South. If you ever go into a C store in the Southeast, you will see our products there. Excellent margin business, high market share too, by the way. But that’s what you need.
You need variety when categories grow, and that’s why we’ve expanded our portfolio to participate in that.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: That’s very helpful. Thank you. So kind of putting a lot of the pieces that we’ve talked about together, I wanted to go back to the FY 2026 guide. I know we’re all looking forward to that next quarter soon enough. We’ve talked about a number of puts and takes, some around the cost side.
Obviously, the trends in your business on volumes doing well. But as we look into next year, what are the high level puts and takes we should think about? And how do you view your ability to preserve margins?
David Marburger, Chief Financial Officer, Conagra Brands: So it always starts with volume. Right? So Sean talked about it. We’re investing more to have consistent volume growth is is key, right, because you get the the overhead absorption, which has been a headwind for us in the manufacturing operations. You get productivity, which every company reports on.
That is very tied to volume because you get the multiplier effect. So it always starts with volume. We talked about on our third quarter call, we’ve had some supply chain issues. That has resulted in us having to go to third party commands to supply both vegetables, which we’re doing this quarter, and chicken. And we’ve been very clear about that.
Those inflated kind of co man costs will go through our first quarter of fiscal twenty six. So that will be a headwind relative to our base costs as we start fiscal twenty six. We’re very pleased with our productivity. We’ve been accelerating that. We’re shooting for a 4% of cost of goods sold target, and we’re well on our way there, and we would expect that to continue.
So the other piece is we invested a lot this year in trade merchandising. So that has been part of why our gross margins have been down. Now is is about all that investment we made, we’re we’re assessing it, and we’re I call it optimizing. So as we build our plans for next year, what what programs, what deals worked, and what didn’t. We have a pretty robust trade management system where we can evaluate the effectiveness and ROI of deals.
Ones that didn’t work, we’ll reallocate dollars to ones that do work. So we would expect it’s not another spike in investment, but it’s better ROI on the investment, the big investment we’ve made to continue to to optimize that. So and then the last one is inflation. And as I mentioned before, inflation has been sticky for us. It’s frustrating.
We’re doing everything we can to offset it, but as I said, we’re gonna finish this year at 4%. We saw a spike in chicken. So we just have to we just have to keep grinding through it to see what can we do to offset it, but that’s really the wild card. Because if inflation is, you know, kind of above that two to 3%, you you do have to look seriously at taking additional price increases. In this environment, not ideal, but you have to do it to to manage your p and l and your margins.
So more to come on that one.
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: Yes. Just to add a little bit more color on that. If you go back to our last quarterly earnings call transcript, you’ll see a clear outline of kind of what we see as the puts and takes next year. The bottom line is things are still moving around, but we’re we’re gonna wrap some of these supply things. Some of them on the cost front will creep into next year, but some of them won’t repeat.
That will be a good guide. We had tremendous momentum with consumers even through early q three as we just saw incredible resilience of our frozen business behind investment. We interrupted that and had to pull the merch because of the supply issues. But the underlying consumer pull and, frankly, retailer desire to kinda get back on the horse with some of our businesses in the especially in the frozen category where we’ve driven virtually all the growth for the better part of the last decade, that’s gonna be a good guy. But these are uncertain times.
And on, you know, a lot of this macro uncertainty does breed conservatism. One of the things we saw coming out of last quarter is we saw going into q three, and you’ve seen this from other manufacturers talk about retailers taking a conservative stance on inventory replenishment. We thought that was gonna improve this quarter. It it you know, it’s it’s still more conservative as we see things. Every every week, it seems like somebody’s coming out.
And how long is that gonna last? Can’t last forever because I don’t think anybody’s sitting on large levels of absolute inventory. But if you think about it, if you think there is a strained consumer on the horizon, then maybe you’re anticipating velocities will slow, and then maybe you hold a little bit lower inventory. So there there is an element of conservatism even in the retailer environment right now that we gotta continue to monitor. So we’re not guiding today.
We’ve got a little bit of time to kinda see how the dust settles. But any of these these short term things, I view as heavily temporary, much as you’ve seen in the market. It’s, again, people erring on the side of caution until they can see the dust settle. I think if we see a few green shoots, I think you will see a a rather quick return to normalcy. Can I add one more thing, Absolutely?
David Marburger, Chief Financial Officer, Conagra Brands: Free cash flow. Our our free cash flow performance has been very strong. We’re very focused on it. It’s part of our compensation programs. We paid down $500,000,000 in debt in the last twelve months.
We will continue to focus on that and expect that to continue as we go into next year.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Great. That’s very helpful. I think that gave us a lot to think about, and we’ll all be looking forward to the guide next quarter. But I think you kind of opened up the door to my next question on your free cash flow comments. Obviously, you have made great progress reducing your leverage over the last few years.
Just how do you think about improvement from here towards that 3x target? And how much can be done by debt paydown versus reacceleration in the business at this point?
David Marburger, Chief Financial Officer, Conagra Brands: So we always talk about leverage. Obviously, it’s it’s the net debt and and EBITDA. Our focus is on generating free cash flow, you know, paying our dividend, a competitive dividend, and then being able to pay down debt. And we’re gonna we’ve done that. We’re gonna continue to do that.
Our denominator our EBITDA has bounced around. Our earnings, we’ve had some some some volatility in that this year, so the the leverage ratio has spiked up a little bit. But I primarily, it starts with generating free cash flow to continue to pay debt down. So that will continue to be the priority. We’ll see, obviously, as we give our guidance in July for fiscal twenty six where we land with earnings, and then that’ll inform kind of where we are with the leverage ratio.
But the but the generating cash flow to pay down debt has worked, and it will continue to be our top priority.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Great. That’s very helpful. So obviously, the debt paydown, the top priority. But maybe we could just dig into capital allocation a little bit more overall, how you think your about your priorities given the solid cash flow that you’re focused on? And maybe more detail around M and A and where you see opportunities there.
You obviously announced plans to divest Chef Boyardee recently. And just how are you thinking about M and A broadly going forward as well?
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: So the our playbook hasn’t changed. We believe in a balanced approach to capital allocation. It starts with investing in the businesses and modernizing them the way we’ve done. It includes acquisition. It includes paying a healthy dividend.
It includes share buybacks from time to time. And we also engage in divestitures as part of the overall portfolio reshaping. But the ultimate goal is to continue to drive better growth and better margins on an ongoing basis with the portfolio. And so as we think about where we stand in any given window, it’s kind of like what is the right thing strategically for the long term shareholder value creation cash flows of the company, and what is the best option among all the capital allocation options we’ve got. For the last several years, our primary focus has been on debt pay down.
We did a major acquisition. We became the largest frozen player in the world. We’ve harvested a tremendous amount of synergies out of that acquisition, and we’re we’re very pleased with where our market structure stands in the frozen business today. But we took on debt to do that, so we’ve been maniacally focused on deleveraging, that continues until we hit our our three turn target. But we’ve also done other things along the way as well.
We continue to pay a healthy dividend. We periodically bought back shares, and we have done there is room for bolt on acquisitions that make strategic sense. So we did buy Fady within the last year. That’s really important. It’s important because it’s a fast growing category, we’re the market leaders in that category, and it gives us something different and a new variety and an expanding subsegment, as I just explained a few minutes ago.
So that’s part of it as well. Divestitures are have always been part of the mix. And what I’ve said historically with divestitures is if something is not a strategic fit for us and it is a drag on our margins or it is a drag on our sales, typically, it comes down to, does somebody wanna own it and pay us a number that is equal or better than the intrinsic value of the business? Because if they do, we’re open minded to it. And and obviously, that was the case with the Chef Boyardee divestiture recently.
But, you know, each of those, you have to look at case by case, and we like the idea of continuing to sculpt better growth and better margins for the portfolio through a combination of investing in the business, small bolt on acquisitions and then targeted divestitures. And on that last piece, if we can pay down material debt in the meantime, that’s even better.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: Great. Thank you. I think we have time for me to sneak one more question in, so I will. I wanted to follow-up on something you mentioned when we were talking about the outlook for ’26 around the supply disruption that you had within frozen for a couple categories over the last year. Obviously, you brought the co man on and made some improvement there.
But just see if you could provide a little bit more detail on where we are on the recovery. Is it still tracking to the August time frame? And just how you view your ability to kind of regain all the share within shelf space there.
David Marburger, Chief Financial Officer, Conagra Brands: Yep. So it was really two things. Right? It was our frozen vegetable business with Birds Eye. That was a demand driven just demand spiked.
We had to put customers on allocation. We went to a third party to supply. So by the end of this quarter that we’re in, we’ll pretty much be back on track. The one that’s going to extend into next year, both from a cost and from a supply perspective, is our we have a primary plant that manufactures chicken that goes into a lot of our different meals. And so we had a disruption at that manufacturing plant, so we’ve gone to the third party to supply, you know, various cuts of chicken.
We are continuing with the modernization of that facility, which will take us through basically the end of the first quarter. So we’re building inventories, and we’ll continue to do that. And then so by the end of the first quarter, we expect that to be done. It will drift a little into the second quarter as we kind of transition back, But we’re on track with everything that we’ve said in Q3.
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: Yes. As Dave points out, at the root cause of the Birds Eye Challenge was this incredible surge in demand we had as we began doing some holiday promotions on the business. On the chicken business, there’s one element of it that is also tied to incredible demand, which is one of our most successful innovations this year is our new Banquet Mega Chicken Filet. And so I know you’ve all been to Chick fil A. We basically built a product under Banquet Mega Filets that is a Chick fil A equivalent in a bag, and it was one of our fastest moving new innovations.
So that has been that has kind of exacerbated the the out of stock issue we’ve gotten. So we’ve had to tamp down demand on these products while we build back the supply capability. But underneath it, we were very pleased to see that one of our innovations widely exceeded our expectations and is really resonating with consumers at home as an incredible value where they can, again, replicate something they can get in the food service world but in their own kitchen at a better value.
Leah Jordan, Packaged Food and Food Retail Analyst, Goldman: And that’s great. Thank you, Sean, David. This is a great chat. Thank you
Sean Connolly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Conagra Brands: so much. Thank you. Thanks, everybody. See you. Thanks.
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