Earnings call transcript: Antero Midstream Q3 2025 beats EPS forecast

Antero Midstream Corp reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing EPS expectations with a reported $0.27 compared to the forecasted $0.25, marking an 8% surprise. However, the company fell short on revenue, reporting $269.87 million against a forecast of $294.99 million, an 8.52% miss. Despite the mixed financial results, the stock showed minimal movement, with a slight premarket decline of 2.45%. InvestingPro data reveals Antero boasts a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating exceptional financial strength, with the stock generally trading with low price volatility.

Key Takeaways

• EPS exceeded expectations by 8%, while revenue missed forecasts by 8.52%.
• Stock price experienced a slight premarket decline of 2.45%.
• Antero Midstream reduced its absolute debt by $175 million, improving its leverage ratio to 2.7x.
• Freshwater delivery volumes saw a significant increase of nearly 30% year-over-year.

Company Performance

Antero Midstream demonstrated robust performance in Q3 2025, with a 10% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $281 million. The company also achieved a notable 94% year-over-year increase in free cash flow after dividends, amounting to $78 million. Operationally, the company reported a 99% uptime availability, reflecting strong efficiency in its operations.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $269.87 million, below the forecast of $294.99 million
• Earnings per share: $0.27, exceeding the forecast of $0.25
• Adjusted EBITDA: $281 million, a 10% increase YoY
• Free cash flow after dividends: $78 million, a 94% increase YoY

Earnings vs. Forecast

Antero Midstream’s EPS of $0.27 surpassed the forecasted $0.25, resulting in an 8% earnings surprise. However, revenue fell short by 8.52%, with actual figures at $269.87 million compared to the anticipated $294.99 million. This mixed performance reflects a divergence in earnings and revenue expectations.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Antero Midstream’s stock experienced a minor premarket decline of 2.45%, trading at $17.10. The stock’s movement remains within its 52-week range, with a high of $19.82 and a low of $14.22.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, Antero Midstream plans to continue focusing on debt reduction and share repurchases, aiming for a balanced capital allocation strategy. The company anticipates expanding its free cash flow into 2026 and expects lower capital intensity in future developments.

Executive Commentary

"Our balance sheet is in the strongest position since our IPO over a decade ago," said Justin Agnew, CFO. CEO Michael Kennedy emphasized the company’s active expansion efforts, stating, "We continue to remain active in our expansion efforts, leveraging our existing assets to drive growth."

Risks and Challenges

• Revenue shortfall: Persistent revenue misses could impact investor confidence.
• Market volatility: Fluctuations in natural gas demand may affect future performance.
• Capital allocation: Balancing debt reduction and share repurchases requires careful management.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the potential for behind-the-meter power generation and opportunities with underutilized assets. The company also addressed infrastructure spending for new locations and economic considerations between dry gas and liquids.

This comprehensive analysis of Antero Midstream’s Q3 2025 earnings highlights the company’s strategic focus on debt reduction and operational efficiency, despite a revenue shortfall.

Full transcript - Antero Midstream Corp (AM) Q3 2025:

Conference Operator: Greetings and welcome to the Antero Midstream third quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press 0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce to you Dan Kassenberg, the Director of Finance. Thank you, sir. Please go ahead.

Dan Kassenberg, Director of Finance, Antero Midstream: Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream’s third quarter investor conference call. We’ll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we’ll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today’s call. Today’s call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures. Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Antero Midstream, Justin Agnew, CFO of Antero Midstream, and Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Resources. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Mike.

Michael Kennedy, CEO and President, Antero Midstream: Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. In my comments, I will discuss our 2025 capital budget and strategic initiatives. Justin will then walk through our financials.

: Results for the quarter.

Michael Kennedy, CEO and President, Antero Midstream: Let’s start on slide number three, titled Investing in the Core of the Marcellus Shale. The maps on this page depict the core outline as we knew it upon Antero Resources 2013 IPO compared to where we see it today. As step-out development has proved up acreage over the last decade, the core boundaries continue to expand on the Marcellus along with improving well results. These results have driven an increase in organic leasing program at Antero Resources and an expansion of Antero Midstream’s infrastructure. This organic expansion of both Antero Resources and Antero Midstream is a core initiative at both entities and positions us well for the structural change in natural gas demand over the next several years. During the quarter, Antero Resources acquired approximately $260 million of assets in this core area.

This included transactions acquiring working and royalty interest which were already gathered by Antero Midstream, as well as additional core acreage. The acreage acquisition was undedicated to a midstream provider and resulted in 10 additional locations dedicated to Antero Midstream along with the grassroots leasing program. This brings the total locations acquired year to date and dedicated to Antero Midstream to approximately 80 locations, more than offsetting the 2025 development plan. Looking at Antero Midstream’s capital investment during the third quarter, we invested $51 million, bringing our year to date capital invested to $133 million or approximately 75% of our total budget. At the midpoint of guidance, this capital included significant investments in water assets to expand and connect the southern end of the Marcellus Shale. This investment provides development flexibility and unlocks significant low-cost inventory across the liquids-rich midstream corridor.

Dan Kassenberg, Director of Finance, Antero Midstream: I also want to touch on some.

Michael Kennedy, CEO and President, Antero Midstream: New initiatives on the dry gas portion in West Virginia of our acreage highlighted in blue on slide number four. With only a small investment by AM, AR is now planning to drill its first dry gas Marcellus pad in over a decade. This pad is located on existing infrastructure with underutilized midstream capacity that AM acquired in 2022. This pad highlights the speed the market Antero can deliver on a coordinated basis with Antero Midstream and significant dry gas optionality. Our midstream infrastructure will allow AR to immediately access local markets as proof of concept for future in basin demand growth from data centers and power generation projects, or if local basis were to tighten. This dry gas development results in attractive rates of return for AM and, more importantly, significant upside to our previous acquisition that was valued on a PDP only basis.

In summary, we continue to remain active in our expansion efforts, leveraging our existing assets to drive growth and capitalize on the structural change in demand for natural gas. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Justin.

: Thanks, Mike. I’ll start with our third quarter financial results on slide number five. During the third quarter, gathering compression volumes increased by 5% year over year, driven by another quarter of uptime availability over 99%. Adjusted EBITDA was $281 million, which was a 10% increase year over year. This was driven primarily by an increase in gathering, processing, and freshwater delivery volumes. Freshwater delivery volumes increased by almost 30% year over year while operating just one completion crew, which is a testament to the significant completion efficiencies achieved over the last year. This EBITDA growth, combined with declining capital, resulted in free cash flow after dividends of $78 million, which was a 94% increase compared to last year. We utilized this free cash flow for share repurchases and debt reduction, which drove our leverage down to 2.7 times as of September 30.

I’ll finish my comments on slide number six titled Balance Sheet Strength and Flexibility. Over the last year, we’ve reduced our absolute debt by approximately $175 million and taken our leverage down by almost a half a turn. This credit improvement resulted in a credit ratings upgrade from Moody’s and the ability to refinance our nearest maturity notes that were due in 2027. This transaction, which was upsized due to significant demand, extended the maturity to 2033 at the same 5.75% coupon. Pro forma for this refinancing, we have over $870 million of liquidity and no near-term maturities. Our balanced approach to debt reduction and share repurchases has allowed us to reduce our financing costs, further compounding the growth in free cash flow after dividends. In summary, AM’s balance sheet is in the strongest position since our IPO over a decade ago.

Our capital investments continue to deliver consistent free cash flow, which we expect to further expand as we head into 2026. This expanding free cash flow positions us well to return additional capital to shareholders and continue to expand our growth opportunities across both the liquids-rich and dry gas portions of our asset base. With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.

Conference Operator: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the queue. You may press Star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions. The first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst, JPMorgan: Hi, good morning.

: Morning.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst, JPMorgan: Just wanted to turn to the topic of in-basin demand specifically as it relates to the potential for behind-the-meter opportunities. I believe Antero Midstream talked about being in discussions there and looking at this, just trying to get a sense for how near or later term this is. Just trying to get a feel for that and whether customers are looking for prices pinned to just in-basin, or is Henry Hub part of the conversation, wondering how this all mixes together?

Brendan Krueger, CFO, Antero Resources: Yeah, this is Brendan just to touch on the in basin demand and behind-the-meter. I think we’ve talked about it in the past. You know, Antero Resources is one of the largest consumers of power in the state of West Virginia at the Sherwood Complex. We’ve talked about it in that light in the past where you could go behind-the-meter. That would accomplish a couple of things. One would reduce overall operating costs for Antero Resources on the power side of things. Secondly, you’d obviously free up incremental grid power if you were to go behind-the-meter in that scenario. Obviously, it takes a lot of different parties to work through solutions such as that. No timeframe on our end. Still analyzing, still having discussions around opportunities like that.

In addition, we’ve mentioned in the past, but we do feel the Antero family is very well positioned as it relates to data center opportunities to the extent they take hold in the state of West Virginia. I think Antero Resources produces about 40% of the natural gas production in the state. Highly integrated with Antero Midstream, has the water system that it’s invested about $600 million in. Significant water system which can be helpful in power infrastructure. A lot of good attributes between the two parties that we think could play out well. Still ongoing discussions at this point and no set timeframe.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst, JPMorgan: Understood. On this Sherwood behind-the-meter potential project here, what are the specific, I guess, hurdles at this point that would stop moving forward?

Brendan Krueger, CFO, Antero Resources: There are a lot of different pieces to it as it relates to equipment availability and making sure you have the right agreements in place from a power perspective with utilities in that area. I think there are still quite a bit of hurdles just to get something across the finish line. No near term announcements are expected.

: On that as we sit here today.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst, JPMorgan: Got it, thank you. As regards to the underutilized assets that fit quite nicely given the dynamics there, just wondering, are there other pockets across your footprint where the same potential could unfold going forward where there’s underutilized assets that could step into new production that provides, you know, the strong accretion?

Michael Kennedy, CEO and President, Antero Midstream: Yeah, you know, Antero Midstream was early and doing all these bolt-on acquisitions has really consolidated the play. We bought the Crestwood asset, which is the dry gas kind of portion in 2022, bought Summit as well in 2024, which is kind of in that more lean gas area. Those two areas comprise a significant amount of acreage. Probably about 150,000 acres in total are all underutilized right now from both a high pressure and compression perspective. There is a lot of availability there for Antero Resources to develop into Antero Midstream’s underutilized capacity.

Conference Operator: Got it.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst, JPMorgan: That’s helpful. I’ll leave it there, thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from the line of Yvonne Scotto with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Yvonne Scotto, Analyst, UBS: Hey, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the 10 undeveloped locations that AR acquired. What kind of capital or infrastructure spend is needed on your end for connectivity to those locations?

Michael Kennedy, CEO and President, Antero Midstream: Not very material. I mean it’s within our core areas. Generally when I think about it, and this is just a good rule of thumb, it’s about $1 million per well when you think about it from a LP and water and then it’s already tied into compression and HP. You know, incrementally maybe $10 million.

Yvonne Scotto, Analyst, UBS: Okay, got it. Thank you for that. Just based off of your free cash flow growth and leverage of 2.7 times, how should we think about capital allocation priorities moving forward?

: Yeah, good question. I think, for now we’re still focused on debt reduction and repurchasing shares. We’ve had a fairly balanced approach year to date. It’s obviously ebbed and flowed a little bit on a quarter to quarter basis. Where the shares are trading today, we obviously see a lot of value in repurchasing shares and there’s obviously some benefit and value of paying down debt. It provides you with a lot of flexibility and you saw the benefit in terms of refinancing the note. I think looking forward it’s still going to be that balanced approach, roughly 50/50 of share repurchases and debt reduction.

Yvonne Scotto, Analyst, UBS: Okay, great, thank you.

Conference Operator: Comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

John Mackay, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Hey everyone, thank you for the time. I wanted to touch on some of these comments around drilling into where Antero Midstream has some open capacity. You called this kind of first drag as well as a bit of a proof of concept, but I guess is the.

Brendan Krueger, CFO, Antero Resources: Current AR plan to kind of lean.

John Mackay, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Really what I’m trying to get to is, you know, could we see the effective capital intensity for Antero Midstream per incremental M of Antero Resources production come down if you’re moving into those windows, or is this again a kind of, hey, we’ll see how we develop the dry side.

Michael Kennedy, CEO and President, Antero Midstream: I think it’s the back half, you know, we’ll see how it goes. If that does occur, it would be. Antero Midstream’s capital intensity would be much lower, obviously, because we already have infrastructure in the region.

John Mackay, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Maybe just a follow up to that is, yeah, I mean you are calling it a proof of concept, I guess. Is this, you know, is this a comment on your side on the liquids outlook and, you know, more enthusiasm for the dry side, or is this a, hey, people that are looking at us for in basin solutions do kind of want to see us be able to execute on the dry piece as well?

Michael Kennedy, CEO and President, Antero Midstream: Yeah, it’s the second, it’s in basin but also, I mean, it’s not a bad thought on the first. You know, we do have the diversity of product here and the ability to toggle between liquids and dry gas from both upstream and midstream. You look at a $4 gas curve versus backward dated oil curve, and that would suggest that dry gas has become more economic on a relative basis. That is something that’s optionality for us from both midstream and upstream. The proof of concept is really for the in local demand, but at the same time, it could be a portfolio approach as well.

John Mackay, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Makes sense. Thanks for your time.

Conference Operator: There are no further questions at this time, and I would like to turn the floor back over to Dan for any closing remarks.

Dan Kassenberg, Director of Finance, Antero Midstream: Thank you everyone for dialing into the call today. Please reach out to us with any questions that you have.

Michael Kennedy, CEO and President, Antero Midstream: Have a good day.

Conference Operator: Thank you everyone, that does conclude today’s teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

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