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Arise Windpower AB reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revealing net sales of SEK 85 million and an EBITDA of SEK 24 million. Despite a negative profit after tax, adjusted to zero, the company’s stock fell 6.78% in pre-market trading, closing at 36.85 the previous day. The adverse market reaction may be attributed to challenging conditions in the power markets and foreign exchange impacts. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a healthy financial position with a Financial Health Score of "GOOD" and an impressive gross profit margin of 97.45%.
Key Takeaways
- Arise Windpower’s Q1 2025 net sales reached SEK 85 million.
- The company faced a negative profit after tax, adjusted to zero.
- Stock price fell by 6.78% in pre-market trading.
- Expansion into the German market and successful project sales were highlights.
- Soft power markets and volatile spot prices presented challenges.
Company Performance
Arise Windpower’s performance in Q1 2025 was marked by a challenging market environment. While the company expanded its project portfolio and entered new markets, it faced headwinds from soft power markets and volatile spot prices. The Nordic market, in particular, was affected by a hydrological surplus, leading to decreased demand and price drops.
Financial Highlights
- Net Sales: SEK 85 million
- EBITDA: SEK 24 million
- EBIT: SEK 2 million
- Profit after tax: Negative SEK 19 million (adjusted to zero)
- Own production: 91 gigawatt hours
Market Reaction
The stock price of Arise Windpower AB dropped by 6.78% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over the company’s financial performance and market conditions. The stock’s decline was notable within its 52-week range of $3.17 to $5.87, suggesting heightened sensitivity to the earnings results. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently undervalued, trading at an attractive P/E ratio of 8.13. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access 7 additional key insights about Arise, including detailed valuation metrics and growth projections.
Outlook & Guidance
Arise Windpower aims to achieve 400 MW in project sales for 2024-2025, although current sales are at 65 MW. The company is targeting a 10,000 MW project pipeline by the end of 2025 and expects commercial takeover of the Schernwala project in Q2. Looking further ahead, Arise plans to reach 500 MW in annual project sales from 2026 to 2028. InvestingPro data shows analysts expect 44% revenue growth this year, with management actively buying back shares. The company operates with moderate debt levels and maintains strong liquidity, with a current ratio of 1.5.
Executive Commentary
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, emphasized the strategic benefits of distributed power production, stating, "Security of supply with distributed power production is better in a more turbulent situation." CFO Markus Larsson expressed confidence in reaching financial targets, highlighting the company’s strategic positioning.
Risks and Challenges
- Soft power markets and hydrological surplus in the Nordic region.
- Volatile spot prices affecting revenue stability.
- FX impacts on revenue recognition.
- Low demand in key markets such as the Nordic and German regions.
- Competition and market saturation in renewable energy sectors.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of FX on revenue and the company’s hedging strategies. Executives addressed these concerns, reaffirming confidence in financial targets despite market challenges.
Full transcript - Arise Windpower AB (ARISE) Q1 2025:
Conference Moderator: Now I will hand the conference over
Unidentified Speaker: to the
Conference Moderator: speakers. CEO Per Erik Eriksson and CFO Markus Larsson, please go ahead.
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Thank you very much. I will start with a brief introduction of the company. Slide three. Thank you. Arise was founded in 02/2007, the first company in the sector in Sweden to be listed on Nasdaq in 2010.
And we are nowadays some 76 employees in six different countries. We have three business segments starting with the IPP part of production. Currently, we have 72 megawatts installed corresponding to some 430 gigawatt hours per year annual production, budgeted production, I could say. We also have the development segment. Currently, we are at the 9,000 megawatts in our project pipeline.
We have since inception divested some sixteen twenty megawatts, adding some 25 to this during the quarter with the transaction of the best in Finland. And the third leg is our solution, what they call solutions, our services business, asset management, and also construction management. Currently, we have some 2,000 megawatts under asset management, and we have under construction management some 380 megawatts. With that, I leave the word to Markus.
Markus Larsson, CFO, Arise: Thank you, Pririk. Yeah. Q one twenty twenty five was affected by FX to quite some extent. I will come back to that in short. Our reported net sales amounted to 85,000,000 for the quarter.
EBITDA came in at 24,000,000, EBIT at SEK 2,000,000. Profit after tax totaled negative SEK 19,000,000, but adjusting for our refinancing one offs of minus SEK 19,000,000, profit after tax totaled zero or SEK 0.07 per share. Our operating cash flow was million and cash flow after investments amounted to minus SEK10 million. Own production generated 91 gigawatt hours, pretty much in line with the same period last year. The average income decreased to SEK $5.55 per megawatt hour.
And during the quarter, the project portfolio increased by almost 150 megawatts. Illustrating some effects and one off effects on this slide, as we have our revenue from earn outs recognized in euro, a weak euro impacts the revenue within the development segment. In the first quarter, this corresponded to approximately minus 18,000,000, hitting net sales EBITDA trickling down to the profit before tax as well. The weak euro obviously had the opposite effect within our net financials, where we instead had a positive effect of SEK 11,000,000. In connection with the refinancing and redemption of the outstanding bonds in January and as we communicated at that time, we had we took one off costs of approximately minus SEK 19,000,000 in the quarter.
So the total impact of the above these items amounted to an EBITDA effect of minus SEK 18,000,000 and an effect on profit before tax of minus SEK 26,000,000, which is worth keeping in mind. So if we look briefly into our segments, Development posted negative EBITDA of 5,000,000 during the quarter, primarily then explained by the FX effects I just discussed. Happily, we signed an agreement for the first Finnish project sale in March, the battery project that Prjerik mentioned. The earnings effect will come in the second quarter. Overall, continued maturation of projects across all markets.
Within our own production, we posted an EBITDA of SEK 35,000,000. January and March saw decent wind speeds, but February was kind of horrible and burdened the full quarter. Our realized price decreased to SEK55 SEK55 million, still on a historically good level. During Q1, we also entered into our first hedge positions. We hedged roughly nine gigawatt hours each for Q4 twenty twenty five at €61 per megawatt hour and Q1 twenty twenty six at €72.
Our solutions business posted zero MZEC in EBITDA, and that’s due to the fact that the construction management agreement for Scharlwalden has been fully invoiced, which imply the revenue dropped by approximately SEK 2,000,000 for the quarter. There will be no further revenue under the construction management agreement, but instead the operations management agreement will kick in at the commercial takeover, which we expect in the first half of the year. Looking into our portfolio a bit. And we as I mentioned, it increased by some 150 megawatts. In Finland, during the quarter, obviously, focused on the sale of Pussispera, but also maturing other projects, not least other best projects.
We saw good progress in The UK. We expect projects to enter into planning during the year, and we now also see opportunities for the first portfolio sale in the latter part of this year. Finneberjat still waiting for line concession. We expect that to have that in place in late twenty twenty five and also to initiate the transaction process in late twenty twenty five. We have now also initiated the development operation in the German market with a sole focus on best projects where we have the aim to get projects to ready to build already in 2026.
So all in all, satisfactory development of the project portfolio. With that, I’ll take a breath and hand back over to you, Blake.
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Thank you. Looking at the power markets, in general, I could say that we had quite soft power markets during the quarter. In The Nordics, very much influenced by a strong hydrological surplus entering into the year in The Nordics. If we start with the spot prices, you can see the graph graph to the upper left. We had a quite mixed and volatile spot price environment.
Cold and dry February shifted into wet and very mild March. We still see a low demand and very low prices in the North and healthier pricing in the South. Should also mention that we had a very turbulent balancing market during March. If you look on the graph, you can see the orange line, which is four, and the blue line, which is the system price. You can see prices peaking in February and then losing and weakening during during March and peaking in s e four around €90 per megawatt hour and losing down to some €50 currently.
So so quite a quite a big drop during the quarter on spot prices. Looking on on forward prices to the bottom left, calendar year ’26. Here you can see in the bottom, the blue line, the system price, the orange one, SE four here as well, and the green line is the Yerma forward prices. And you can see it’s a quite big gap between them. Nordic price is very much impacted by a strong supply and continuing low demand, but a bit different story when it comes to to the German prices.
Low demand as well in Germany, but also very much impacted by weakening fuel prices, gas prices as winter risk dissipate. Important to notice the gap between Nordics and Germany. Even though markets are soft, there is a big gap. And if we have a hot and dry summer, it can make a big difference in Nordics coming closer to Germany, but that remains to be seen. With that, we change slide again.
Our agenda for this year, we are very much focused to deliver on our financial targets. The shorter term one is to to to have sales of some 400 megawatts in total, twenty four and twenty five. With the business per transaction, we reached some 65 megawatts. So we are below 50% of the target, but we are still optimistic that we will be able to manage that target. In a more long term target, we have we have a target of 10 gigawatt or 10,000 megawatts in the in the total project project pipeline by end of twenty five.
We are currently, as market show market shown, some 9,000 megawatts in the project portfolio. So we are quite close to that target, I would say. One other main target for us this year is to to achieve commercial takeover of Chernwala, which we expect to do during first half or second quarter this year. And we are continuing our efforts to to maturing early stage projects into late stage to realize our long term target of having some 500 megawatts project sales or FID per year, the years ’26 until 2028. And that is obviously ongoing as we’re not there yet.
And with that, we change light again, a bit deep diving into the first project sale in Finland. I think that we are really happy to be able to deliver on our strategy. One is, of course, to to diversify in terms of technology. This is the second one we are doing on BEST, but also to diversify in terms of geographies, our first transaction in Finland. So we are very happy about that.
A quite big size, the best project, some 25 megawatts, which is sold to Alpiq. As we understand, it’s the largest best project sold in The Nordics so far. Purchase price of €6,700,000 to be paid on closing, and we expect to have closing very soon this quarter. Following by Schirling in the end of twenty four, I think we think that this is further illustrates the results from our diversification efforts and some kind of evidence that this model works for us. Should also mention that that the best projects are quite much different to to to developing wind
We can do it with a very low capital spend. Of course, it requires competence, but not much capital. And we actually as we did for Pyschol, and we also had a quite quick process for for business per around one year from from start to to sales. And looking at the IRR, it’s quite impressive numbers where we are looking at here where we are talking about the four digit IRR percentage. We are quite confident that we are able to do more transactions on vessels, and we are well positioned to do further transactions already this year.
Short term outlook. As we all experienced, there are a lot of geopolitical turbulence globally. And as we see it, this is another driver for what we do, distributed power production, security and supply, or you could say national security as having they were having distributed power production. It’s less sensitive for for attacks in a in a war situation. As we see, this should increase the attractiveness not just for our eyes for the whole sector in reality.
Looking a bit more, on Arise, we are aiming for at least two more transactions this year. The successful diversification has provided us with a number of transaction opportunities. We we have not just one or two alternatives here. We have a number of alternatives in different regions, which makes life a bit easier for us. We have experienced quite and we are currently in quite soft power markets, but we should keep in mind that the power markets are really sensitive, weather driven with high volatility.
We have so far been quite successful in doing price hatches when there are opportunities in the market, and we are still we are active in monitoring the market on a daily basis, and we will if we see opportunities, we will do some further price hedges short term and during the year as well. And as said earlier, we will see this year quite big price gap to Continental Europe. And if we see some some different weather conditions, hot and dry, we will see and most likely see see a market change north again. With that said, I think we are through the presentation and the floor open for questions.
Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Caleb Solomon from SEB. Please go ahead.
Caleb Solomon, Analyst, SEB: Hi, guys. Just a few questions from my side. In the report, you said FX had a negative impact of roughly SEK 18,000,000. Can you quantify how much of that was kind of due to negative effects on the electricity prices and the revenue recognized this specific quarter in development versus the kind of negative revaluation of development and construction projects you have on your balance sheet?
Markus Larsson, CFO, Arise: Hi, Kaleb. Thank you. The $18,000,000 mentioned in the report is kind of carved out only for the contract assets or for the revenue recognition. So that’s the major FX effect in the quarter, which we wanted to illustrate. And that’s due to the earn the all the earn outs being recognized in revenues.
So there is a revaluation also for the kind of historical revenues that has been recognized. So 18 is is on the contract assets alone.
Caleb Solomon, Analyst, SEB: Okay. That’s clear. And last quarter, you secured hedges for Q4 this year and Q1 next year. But since then, hydro balances have come up a lot. So can you say anything about how the kind of pricing of those baseload contracts has moved since then and if you were able to secure any new ones during q one?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Yeah. Maybe, Jack, I would say that that in in the let’s say if you go back just a few weeks, we have been a bit sideways in in in in short term prices. We have we are as said, we we are monitoring the the market closely. And if you will see, which we probably will see, some some dry weather and hot weather during the summer, then then then it can change. I mean, it can change in a two weeks time to be totally different.
And and we are, like, we are basically waiting for for those peaks to to to happen, and then then we are ready to strike. As simple as that. So we are focusing on on short term market as it is right now. Looking at our targets, I would say that the closest ones are in q one, ’26 as it is right now. ’25 prices doesn’t look super good in the short term.
So so we expect perhaps more and more during q four, q ’1, and and perhaps to stay open during during summer. We’ll see. But that’s where we are right now.
Caleb Solomon, Analyst, SEB: And just a follow-up. Should I interpret that as they have moved sideways since last quarter, or they’re slightly down, from, I think, was €70?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: No. Sorry. From from last quarter, it’s down. I was in a in a much shorter perspective than you, Caleb. So so from last quarter, it’s definitely down.
And as you can see in in the previous slide that we had in q in in s e four, we had prices in February around €90 per megawatt hour dropped down to 50. So so it’s quite a big drop there. But but I will in my world, I was just in the closest weeks. But looking back a quarter, definitely lower. Yes.
Caleb Solomon, Analyst, SEB: Okay. That’s clear. Thank you. And in Q4, you also said that 1,000,000 per megawatt should be considered as sort of a blended average for the projects you sell. And I get that this differs depending on what technology and stage you sell the project at.
But considering that the last projects or the one you’re expecting to close in Q2 was just below $600,000 per megawatt. Does that imply that we should expect some of the projects this year to be more tilted towards technologies with higher selling prices like ready to build wind? Or should we kind of expect the average price to be lower than than 1,000,000 per megawatt this year?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: I would say that that is that is quite rough. The 1,000,000 is a quite rough blend of different technologies, different geographies, and different timing as well. So so so so it’s really a rough number. I would say that if we do more best transactions this year in Finland, we will be in the same neighborhood as as you can see for Kussis Para. If we will do wind in some other geography, it would be, we expect the DP to to be higher.
So so it’s really a bit of a moving target there. But but, obviously, we have a bit soft markets. So so I I would say that the DPs this year will not be a record level.
Caleb Solomon, Analyst, SEB: K. That’s clear. And has the recent kind of global turmoil at all impacted your clients’ willingness to invest in your projects in the sense that you’re more hesitant? And and are you as confident in your volume targets today as you were one quarter ago?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Yeah. We haven’t changed our mind when it comes to our what we aim for this year and what the expectations for this year. Obviously, the geopolitical turmoil have impact on all markets and also especially on financial markets. But as we see as we see it, what what we do should really it really strengthen our business case, I would say, what’s happening in the world. As I said before, that, I mean, security of supply with the with the distributed power production is is better in a more situation.
So I think all in all, it strengthen our business case, the the the turmoil we see.
Caleb Solomon, Analyst, SEB: Okay. And just one last kind of housekeeping question. I just noticed you said, you’re expecting to sell two projects this year, and I think that’s the first time I’ve heard an OR you actually specify how many projects. So why is that, and can you expand on what projects, that is? And and you also mentioned you’re expecting Finobarria to initiate sales process late twenty twenty five.
Do you also expect to close the 2025? And is that one of the projects you’re referring to, or is that more 2016?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: I think I said not I didn’t say two. I said at least two. And and we are actually we we have more opportunities. I think we also said that the diversification is has been successful for us, and we expect to do more in Finland. We expect to do something in The UK as well during the year.
With that said, we don’t exclude the possibility that we will do something in Sweden as well. So so we are looking at, a number of, opportunities, alternatives in in parallel right now. Coming back to Finabariant, I it’s possible, but unlikely that we will close that plan this year.
Caleb Solomon, Analyst, SEB: Okay. That’s all from me. Thank you. I’ll get back in line.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Thank you.
Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Hannah Grimborg from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Speaker: Yeah. Hi. Hannah here. So I have two questions. So the first one is when it comes to reaching your financial target of selling 400 megawatts, Do you feel as confident in reaching this now as you did in the last year?
Or do you think that uncertainty has increased? So that’s the first one. And the second question is just in the production division. How have the capture rate developed during the quarter, and how do you think that that will develop now going forward?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Okay. Should I make an attempt, Markus?
Markus Larsson, CFO, Arise: Or I can take I can take the first one. The the the financial targets, I mean, yes, we are as as confident and as confident you can be in the development business. Right? So we we we are confident that we’re having the the we’re having the number of boards to play so so that we that we will that we will be able to reach the financial targets. But on the other hand, it’s a development business.
There’s always inherent risk in that. But in that sense, nothing has changed from from the last quarters, not least since we signed the business better in the in the in the quarter. Capture rates going forward, very difficult to say. I don’t know if you have some some flavor on that, Frederic.
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: What what we have seen so far is lower power prices has also been higher capture rates, most likely that that will that will continue. Yeah. So we we had some improvements in capture rates, I would say, but on the on the hand, power price has been been lower as well. So so it tends to be connected to each other. Like, for instance, we had super high capture rebate discounts during ’22 at super high prices.
But in the end of the day, we have, even though high capture discounts, we had high revenues. Mhmm. Should also say, back to the first question on on the on the portfolio and expectations and that we have been expecting from first when when when we set the target that it would be a backloaded one. So so Oh, that’s right. So I think we are progressing as we had hoped.
Unidentified Speaker: Alright. Great thing for them. Thank you. Thanks for that.
Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Matthias Ehrenborg from Redeye. Go ahead.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Hello, gentlemen. Matthias here from Redeye. Just wanted to start off by asking regarding the Finn or Baljes project. You touched upon it already in your presentation and earlier in the Q and A session here. But in the last report, you mentioned that you aim to divest the project in 2025.
It now says that you hope to initiate the sales process here in 2025. And what has happened since the last quarter, I mean, in terms of progression? Is it still a line concession that is a bit uncertain in terms of timing? Or what’s the status?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Yes. So it’s a waiting process, really. And, of course, we we have the hope that that authorities could be quicker to to handle this quite quite simple simple permitting processes, but it takes time. Unfortunately, of course, there are matters of resources, etcetera, authorities, but nothing really happened other than than we are we are just waiting, and we have no news on that really. So so it’s more more about what we expect.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Okay. And in terms of the capacity, it’s still uncertain, yeah, what what the final capacity is going to be and if it’s going to be divided into two phases or what’s the status there?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Yes. I will say that that is that is pretty clear now that it will be a step one and two in total 200 in two steps starting with hundred megawatts. So that that’s information we have received from the TSO.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Okay. Excellent. Regarding Schaal Wallen, what remaining effects in the P and L and the cash flow can investors expect?
Markus Larsson, CFO, Arise: Yes. Hi, Matthias. P and L, we expect to have the COD in q two. So we’re as as of now, we’re continuing for the time being the revenue recognition at the same pace. As we come closer to the COD, that might change.
As you’ve seen with, for instance, Kafatosa and Twin Peaks, we also had had some buffer in the end to to cater for, you know, the the final settlement and the final agreement on the earn out payment. So that that’s on the on the p and l side. And then, obviously, we expect the the COD payment to to be paid shortly after.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Okay. Perfect. Thank you. Just a final question regarding the development segment. How would you describe the current state of the transaction market?
And are there any trends worth highlighting in terms of customer risk appetite or pricing and and lead times and so on?
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Yeah. It’s it’s difficult to say, really. Obviously, the the the geopolitical turmoil, I mean, and also financial in in financial markets has some impact. And, of course, you can see some might see some more risk in the markets. But but I think to us, we don’t see any clear signals that that there is less appetite.
And we have, for instance, we have seen a few transactions now in Finland quite recently. So so we see there is capital still in the market to deploy. So so so we don’t see an immediate difference, I would say. Obviously, we we had quite soft power markets in The Nordics, for a short time now. Will that continue?
It might have some impact, but this is we are we are used to this as well-being in the Nordic market that things happen fast, up and down. So we are not that stressed, actually. I think we are quite confident that we will be able to do what we’re aiming for this year.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Okay. Thanks. If we move over to the production segment, just going by the end of this quarter, I had a look at the total wind production in SE3 and SE4, and each region was down 20% quarter on quarter. Despite this, your production only declined six percent. Are you able to provide any color to these numbers?
Because from my point of view, this difference is bigger than before, which is in your favor in this situation.
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: That’s a tricky one. You you mean that that we have been hit less than competitors. Is that what you say? Or
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Yeah. I I exactly. Or yeah. Yeah. Exactly.
I had a look at the total production for for the market in general in s a three and s a four. Yeah.
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: I mean, it it could vary between different wind locations, obviously. And there are also it could be also that there have been issues with availability, etcetera. Obviously, we are not super happy with with the production we had last quarter, but but it could be so that that competitors have a worse situation. But here we are. I haven’t seen that comparison, actually.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Okay. And another question regarding the OpEx per megawatt in the production segment. It amounted to SEK 176 per megawatt relative to SEK 110 in Q1 twenty twenty four. And could you just provide some color on the reason for this increase?
Markus Larsson, CFO, Arise: Yes. This quarter, I would say that mostly explained by the lower production since we have LEO included in this quarter, which we did not have in 2024. So I I think, you know, ballpark, if if we would have if we would have produced according to budget, you could you would have, like, between forty and fifty, maybe, say, per megawatt hours lower OpEx per per megawatt hour. So it’s mostly production driven.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Okay. Okay. That makes sense. The final question from my side. Regarding the CapEx in the quarter amounted
What’s included in this figure this quarter? Is it related to grid concession or what does it look like?
Markus Larsson, CFO, Arise: Yes. No, it’s not related to any great investment. It is related to to the grid in in that towards FarsiCam. And this the the the kind of short summary is that what we do is that we build and we own the grid, and then we sell the right to use to Foscan. So that gives rise to an accrued income, which was paid for and an asset in in.
So that’s the that’s the top up, so to speak, in the in the in the CapEx you see in the cash flow statement. That was roughly SEK 13,000,000 in the quarter. But important to understand is that all this is net cash zero, net EBITDA zero, but we get an asset within the rising of that. So we own the asset, and that’s why it pops up in the investment line item in the cash flow.
Hannah Grimborg, Analyst, Handelsbanken: Okay. Yeah. Okay. That makes sense. Thank you.
Thank you for that. That was all for me. Thank you for taking my questions.
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: Thanks, Matthias. Thank you, Matthias.
Conference Moderator: There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for written questions and closing comments. Okay.
Per Erik Eriksson, CEO, Arise: We’ll do some some closing comments then. First quarter finalized. We are happy to conclude that our strategy start to show results. Extremely happy to see the great performance we have in the Finnish organization, I should say as well. We expect to continue realizing value from our project portfolio during the year to do more sales transactions, as Oleg was already mentioned.
On top of that, we have lower financing costs due to successful refinancing of the company. And we also see some potential upside in our own production during the year. So all in all, we are quite optimistic and expect that 2025 will be another good year for RISE. So thank you very much for attending and listening. Have a good day.
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